Only a few months ago, the quarterback class heading for the 2027 NFL draft looked special.

“Oh yeah — there’s some dudes,” an NFL general manager said in August. “Right now, I’ve got five quarterbacks in the first round, if you include [Brendan] Sorsby.”

The GM had been getting up at 4 a.m. during camp, watching film and writing two player reports a day in an effort to get ahead on his evaluations. And what he saw in those early morning hours was living up to predictions that another bumper crop of QB talent was heading for the league.

“You think the quarterback class will hold up?” I asked.

“Definitely,” he replied. “Between Dante Moore, we’ll see how the LSU kid Sam Leavitt plays and if his foot is OK. I think he could go in the first. The five, I think it’s [Notre Dame’s CJ] Carr, Arch [Manning of Texas], Dante, Leavitt and Sorsby, depending how he looks.”

Less than three months later? It has not held up.

Subscribe now

As often happens in college football seasons, the forthcoming NFL quarterback class is going sideways. So much so, Carr might be the only certain first-round quarterback on that GM’s list from August. That’s how much has changed.

Manning? There’s been discussion of a benching. Moore? He’s been sidelined since suffering a frightening concussion on Sept. 26. Meanwhile, Leavitt struggled through a wave of turnovers in his first six games, and Sorsby hasn’t produced any new competitive game tape after gambling revelations cost him the remainder of his college career over the summer. Really, only Carr has continued to live up to his first-round billing.

In that widening uncertainty, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has gone from being off the first-round radar to being the hottest prospect in the group. To the point that Mestemaker could end up being the first QB selected, while Manning, Moore, Leavitt and Sorsby fall out of the first round entirely.

That’s a pretty blunt assessment. But it underlines an assumption about this class that has gone sideways: With another season under their belts, both the individual quarterbacks and their collective class will get better. Instead, it has gone in the other direction, with problems that are hard to explain away.

Share

Manning is the prime example. The physical ability was clearly there. But the trust that it would come through from one Saturday to the next was not. Another year in Steve Sarkisian’s offense at Texas was supposed to resolve that. Logically, the belief was that Manning would build better consistency, command and decision-making. With it, the offense would take a step forward, eliminating frustrating stretches where Manning and the passing game would seemingly disappear or commit too many mistakes to be sustainable.

Saturday’s win over Ole Miss was a good snapshot of how that effort has gone. Manning ran for a pair of touchdowns, including the one that put Texas ahead for good. But he also threw a pair of interceptions and lost a fumble. Taken as a whole, it’s what makes Manning dicey as a presumed franchise quarterback. He showcases enough ability and competitiveness to win games against a ranked opponent, but he makes enough mistakes to make the win harder than it needed to be.

As evaluators will tell you, talent and lineage and splash moments are great, but NFL offenses are functional partly because of the ordinary things that quarterbacks do. Just find the open receiver, take the available completion, and get through progressions before protection breaks down. Another season at Texas was supposed to resolve that in Manning’s game. It hasn’t, and now NFL evaluators are going to have to grapple with that dilemma.

The issues with Moore are a little different. He very well could have been the top pick in the 2026 draft if he had declared and had a good showing in workouts and at the combine. He didn’t, setting the stage this season for simply seeing him get more starts under his belt. The added experience was expected to provide more evidence of how he’d grown at Oregon, as well as how he’d respond to the pressure of NFL expectations that would only intensify.

Statistically, he got off to a solid start before suffering a severe concussion against USC on Sept. 26. But beyond the box score, he struggled with pocket pressure in a Sept. 12 loss to Oklahoma State. He was also dinking and dunking in the pass game before his concussion, which is going to become a focal point of critics who suggest he’s more of a system quarterback than an innovator at the position.

Then came the concussion and three missed games, which complicate his evaluation. The bottom line: He went back to Oregon and is now surrounded by more questions rather than fewer. And there’s some lingering belief in the agent and personnel community that Moore may not return to play at all, in hopes of preserving the 2025 season and limited 2026 tape to drive his draft evaluation into the NFL combine.

For NFL teams, the consequences of that are not minor. Multiple franchises were positioning themselves to have strong quarterback options in the 2027 draft. They were counting on the class to live up to the hype. That includes the New York Jets, who have three first-round picks and Geno Smith in place as a bridge starter. The Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins are all in the middle of doing extensive work on this quarterback class. Other teams, like the Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts, could also pivot into that pool of suitors depending on how their respective starters perform down the stretch.

Subscribe now

That’s where the concern over the size and depth of the class becomes practical. A class of five legitimate first-round quarterbacks would give teams room to disagree on their evaluations, prioritize different traits and all still come away with a player. If the class ends up shrinking to two or three QBs with legitimate first-round grades, it creates pressure to trade up or face accepting a larger developmental gamble or veteran option. That’s when second-round grades become first-round selections, or fringe first-round evaluations get pushed up the draft board by need. And as we’ve seen in the past, a QB with flaws moving up the draft board doesn’t suddenly make him a better player. It just makes the risk more expensive.

There are other variables with the 2027 class in play, too. If Manning’s stock slides, or Moore’s health or performance makes him a larger risk, there’s no guarantee either declares for the draft. While both likely would have been better off declaring in 2026, choosing to return this season may have unexpectedly locked them into college for 2027, too. It all depends how each finishes the season and where they stack up against the field.

But one thing is already a reality. A class with so much potential has hit the rocks. And there is work to do for multiple quarterbacks not named Manning or Moore. With that in mind, here’s a snapshot of the seven quarterbacks that still belong in some kind of first-round discussion. Some are rising, some are falling. All have something to prove down the stretch.

Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State

The good: Mestemaker carried his production into a stronger conference, throwing for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns while showing the arm strength and mobility that have elevated his draft standing.

The tension: How much development remains beyond Eric Morris’ familiar offense? He still needs to show he can consistently move beyond his first read and solve defenses when the initial answer disappears. Despite potentially being the first QB in this class, some personnel evaluators do not think he’s “elite.”

Games to watch: A trip to Kansas State on Nov. 7 and a home game against Texas Tech on Nov. 14 will add important data.

Momentum: Rising. He has moved into the top-10 conversation and could become the first quarterback selected.

Darian Mensah, Miami

The good: Mensah has delivered exceptional efficiency at his third college stop, completing 81.4 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and one interception.

The tension: How much of that precision carries over when the throws become more demanding? Evaluators still need to see more downfield aggression and how consistently he can manufacture answers when pressure disrupts his rhythm.

Games to watch: The Nov. 7 trip to Notre Dame is the centerpiece of his remaining evaluation, followed by a Nov. 14 meeting with his former Duke team.

Momentum: Rising. He has a strong first-round case and an opportunity to establish himself as the class’s top quarterback.

Share

CJ Carr, Notre Dame

The good: Carr has thrown 16 touchdowns against one interception, showing the accuracy, control and decision-making that give him a credible NFL starting profile.

The tension: How high is his ceiling? The efficiency is appealing, but the missed opportunities against BYU raised questions about how consistently he can carry an offense when routine execution isn’t enough.

Games to watch: Home games against Miami on Nov. 7 and SMU on Nov. 21 will provide important tests against opponents capable of pushing Notre Dame.

Momentum: Steady. He remains among the stronger first-round candidates, with the Miami matchup offering a chance to separate himself further.

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

The good: Chambliss has continued to produce against SEC competition, combining passing ability with the mobility and improvisation that helped Ole Miss beat LSU.

The tension: Can he consistently win when defenses keep him in the pocket? Texas held him to 25 completions on 52 attempts and intercepted him three times, adding to an assessment already complicated by his size and age.

Games to watch: Georgia on Nov. 7 and a trip to Oklahoma on Nov. 14 offer substantial opportunities to answer the pocket-passing questions.

Momentum: Uneven. His best performances support a first-round argument, but the Texas tape reinforces why that projection is unsettled.

Dante Moore, Oregon

The good: Moore completed nearly 70 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions before his concussion, showing the accuracy and touch that made him a potential top pick.

The tension: How much will this season actually add to his evaluation? His Sept. 26 concussion interrupted an opportunity to demonstrate more consistent processing and pocket management, and his return remains uncertain to the point that he could end up choosing to sit out the remainder of the college football season.

Games to watch: If medically cleared and doesn’t choose to shut it down the rest of the season, Moore would have significant opportunities at Ohio State on Nov. 7 and against Michigan on Nov. 14.

Momentum: Stalled. He still has a first-round case, but the missed time has left other quarterbacks room to pass him. Some in the personnel community think he may sit out the rest of the season and head to the 2027 draft anyway, relying on workouts to boost his stock.

Subscribe now

Arch Manning, Texas

The good: Manning’s arm talent and running ability still give Texas a chance when the passing game stalls, illustrated by his two rushing touchdowns, including the winner, against Ole Miss.

The tension: When will Manning’s flashes become dependable quarterback play? Because he’s got seven interceptions and recurring problems with reads, accuracy and ball security.

Games to watch: Road games at LSU on Nov. 14 and Texas A&M on Nov. 27 offer significant opportunities to change his assessment.

Momentum: Falling. He could cement himself as a first-round pick or end up bypassing the draft again.

Austin Simmons, Missouri

The good: Simmons has rebuilt his standing after losing the Ole Miss job, pairing a powerful left arm with 14 touchdown passes and only two interceptions at Missouri.

The tension: Does the limited starting experience justify the growing enthusiasm? His 339 passing yards against Ole Miss produced only three points, underscoring the gap between impressive throws and consistently effective quarterback play.

Games to watch: Texas on Nov. 7 and a trip to Georgia on Nov. 14 provide consecutive opportunities to strengthen his case.

Momentum: Rising, with work remaining. First-round interest is building, but a return to college remains plausible if his evaluation still rests heavily on projection.

Jalen Hurts’ heath has become a question that reaches beyond the Eagles. The NFL and players’ union are facing off, and the quarterback’s decision to align himself with the team’s messaging on his blood clots adds another layer of intrigue. Why are the league and union at odds? And why did Hurts choose to stand behind the franchise’s account of events?

Share

I joined Jim Rome on The Jim Rome Show to unpack that dispute, the questions surrounding Hurts’ health and why his position matters in the broader disagreement. Jim and I also discussed Chris Ballard’s end in Indianapolis and why he got nearly 10 years and multiple coaches and quarterbacks to try and get things right. Ballard’s exit also leaves a pressing question for Shane Steichen: Is he fighting for his job? We look at what has changed for the Colts and Steichen.

Tune in and enjoy the conversation. And as always, thank you for supporting NFL Blue Book.

This week’s radio drops…

Joining Robby & Rexrode in Nashville, where we hit multiple major news stories across the league this week (click on photo):

And with Baskin and Phelps in Cleveland, where there’s some growing nervousness about the star-studded 2027 quarterback class that is already getting a little wobbly midway through the college football season (click on photo):

If Sam LaPorta wasn’t an NFL trade deadline candidate 24 hours ago, he is now.

That’s how I’m absorbing the Detroit Lions tight end making surprisingly candid comments to the Pardon My Take podcast this week, when he aired out his feelings on reaching a negotiating stalemate with the team weeks ago. Finally fairly healthy and in the midst of a start to the season that is reminiscent of his All-Pro rookie campaign in 2023, LaPorta is trending toward an extension that could make him the highest-paid tight end in the NFL. But it doesn’t sound like he thinks that deal is coming from the Lions. He told Pardon My Take that he’s not happy about the way his now-stalled negotiations went.

“I think the combination of getting your heartstrings twisted as well as the violent sport we play — it sucks,” LaPorta told the podcast, which appears on Netflix. “It’s disappointing that you go out there every week and you bear the risk of getting hurt. Like last year, whatever it was, Week 9, Week 10, I break my fucking back for this team. And then I’m going out there this year, and I’m ballin’, and maybe they’re just not showing the love.”

The first thing NFL teams hear in that statement is candid frustration. The second thing they hear is a high-pitched whistle to pick up the phone and see if LaPorta is going to be available before the Nov. 10 trade deadline. Whether Detroit answers those calls is another matter. And it might depend on the three-game stretch heading into the deadline, which features a pair of home divisional games against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, and a road date with the Miami Dolphins.

Subscribe now

With the Lions already having their bye in Week 6, LaPorta has 27 catches for 316 yards and three touchdowns through five games. He’s 25, playing out his 4-year rookie contract and producing. And there’s a pressing reality: trading him would create a hole in a high-powered offense that is likely to carry the team’s postseason ambitions throughout the remainder of this season. It’s also worth mentioning that Detroit could retain LaPorta at the end of the season through the use of the franchise tag, giving the team more time to work an extension or find a lucrative trade package in the spring. The bottom line? This doesn’t have to be resolved in the next three weeks.

But there is a spending decision on the horizon.

Why wouldn’t the Lions just pay LaPorta?

According to Over the Cap, the Lions have $35.2 million in current cap space. Quarterback Jared Goff’s scheduled cap charge climbs from $37.6 million this season to $62.6 million in 2027. The good news is Detroit has been ahead of the curve in carving out extensions for a sizable part of the core while maintaining good cap health. That includes deals for offensive tackle Penei Sewell, wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, edge Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackle Alim McNeill, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, safety Kerby Joseph and linebacker Jack Campbell. Safety Brian Branch still requires an extension that is expected to eventually pay him amongst the league’s highest-paid safeties alongside Joseph.

Regardless of good cap health, that’s a lot of mouths that have already been fed, with Branch still in the waiting. Lions general manager Brad Holmes can certainly structure a LaPorta deal to fit, but there are some concerns to consider on the horizon. First, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers becomes extension eligible next offseason, and there’s a belief in some front offices that he could blow the lid off the tight end market with a deal that averages $25 million or more per season. If that happens and LaPorta doesn’t have an extension in place with the Lions, it’s going to hike the price tag. That brings us to the second concern. LaPorta’s back injury in 2025 was dicey and raises some fear of long-term complications down the line. Back injuries can become a recurring issue that dramatically alters career arcs.

Context in that deal matters. The Lions were 1-6 and rebuilding when Holmes did that deal. But he told reporters after the trade that the future contract considerations were part of the thought process.

“If our [1-6] record was reversed and it made sense for us, then we still would have done it,” Holmes told reporters after the trade.

With the Lions sitting at 3-2 right now, the circumstances are different than in 2022. But the salary cap balancing that Holmes is dealing with in 2026 is different, too. What really matters is that he showcased he was willing to factor a future contract into a difficult choice to trade away a productive tight end. Which is precisely why you can’t rule out a LaPorta trade at the deadline or after the season. Especially knowing that the draft picks the Lions would get in exchange for him can be used to draft cheaper players, further supporting Detroit’s continued cap health into the end of the decade.

Share

Trade suitors to watch

Other NFL teams are going to know this. Two that I’d be watching: the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers.

The Broncos are in the final year of Evan Engram’s two-year contract and not getting the production that head coach Sean Payton envisioned when he was signed in 2025. Payton has been looking for a high-impact tight end since he arrived in Denver in 2023. And LaPorta would immediately give quarterback Bo Nix another significant weapon to get back on track.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have been poking around for ways to add supporting pieces for quarterback Bryce Young, who has blossomed over the course of the team’s 3-2 start. LaPorta would be an expensive addition, but also give head coach Dave Canales a dynamic receiving trio to ramp up Young’s long-term growth along with wideouts Tet McMillan and Jalen Coker.

Any buyer would inherit the remaining portion of LaPorta’s $5.675 million base salary this season. The larger expense will be keeping him. And if he’s made available for a trade, that should shape Detroit’s price. There’s little doubt it would take a substantial offer for the Lions to justify weakening their offense in the midst of a playoff push. But LaPorta’s frustration sends up a flare for inquiries with the deadline approaching in 20 days.

Now his future in Detroit seems less certain than ever.

It could have been the quarterback carousel for the last eight years. Or some of the drafts that fell flat in the vital middle rounds — which is often where Super Bowl foundations are laid. Surely, swapping out four different head coaches since the 2017 season did not help. Nor did a seismic trade for cornerback Sauce Gardner that is now struggling to land on the positive side of the ledger.

But in the end, all that really matters in the wake of the firing of Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard on Monday is the standard he set for himself in January of 2017, when he introduced himself to the franchise and its fans.

Nearly ten years later, with a 158-game tally that produced a 73-84-1 record, Ballard’s vision ended with an ugly 26-20 Colts loss to a Tennessee Titans team that had arguably been the NFL’s worst franchise through five weeks.

It brings to a close a tenure in which Ballard was once considered one of the best general managers in the league. He had the scouting pedigree. He had the respect of many peers in the personnel community. And over time, he had the patience of ownership, which is a commodity that is becoming increasingly rare in today’s NFL.

Share

What he didn’t have, though, was the winning. And that was the guiding cultural principle he brought with him from a Kansas City Chiefs personnel staff that has produced four general managers since 2017. Two postseason appearances. One playoff win. Zero AFC South titles. And on Sunday, a familiar feeling of the season slipping away at 2-4, while the questions about the roster and quarterback only continue to grow.

In the past, there was a rationale to cover the futility. Andrew Luck’s unexpected retirement had scrambled the franchise’s timeline. Injuries tore apart promising seasons. Veterans needed time to adjust to scheme and coaching changes, or young players needed time to grow into their prime. And one after another, the starting quarterbacks came and went: Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco … and finally, Daniel Jones.

For years, the changes outnumbered the results. And over the last several seasons, the question about Ballard in the personnel community shifted from when he was going to fix the Colts to why he was still getting an opportunity to do it. Monday, Carlie Irsay-Gordon — who took control of the franchise in 2025 following the death of her father, Jim Irsay — gave the definitive answer. Ballard’s clock had run out. In what is her first major franchise-shaping decision, Irsay-Gordon decided enough was enough and reiterated a standard that came straight from Ballard nearly 10 years ago.

“Our standard is to compete for championships,” Irsay-Gordon said in a statement. “[A]nd I believe a change in leadership is necessary to meet that standard.”

Subscribe now

For Ballard, it represented a definitive fall from once being considered one of the league’s best talent evaluators. For Irsay-Gordon and the Colts, it becomes something possibly more consequential: a pivot point to reimagine a personnel philosophy that survived far longer than the competitive results it produced.

What went wrong

As with all firings of general managers, there is never a shortage of specific events that come up in an autopsy of failure. But few start with the kind of shattering event that inarguably altered the future of the Colts under Ballard’s watch. This, of course, was the shocking and unexpected retirement of then-29-year-old franchise quarterback Andrew Luck in August of 2019. In that single moment, the Colts lost a franchise anchor with the talent and capability to play into his 40s. And a roster that appeared positioned to compete for future Super Bowls suddenly lacked its most important component.

Ballard never really recovered from that.

Certainly, it doesn’t explain everything that went wrong over the years. But it did set the stage for a deep well of failed replacements for Luck. An assembly line that included young veterans like Brissett, Wentz and Jones, past-their-prime veterans like Rivers and Ryan, and a titanic dice roll on an extremely raw but physically talented Anthony Richardson. In one way or another, each quarterback’s failure to entrench themselves opened the door to a reach for a meaningful replacement. Rivers did help the Colts reach the playoffs in 2020, and Jones did start 2025 at 8-2. But neither became a sustainable long-term solution.

But while the quarterback futility is the easiest and most obvious through-line to explain Ballard’s end, that frustration had company, too. There were draft successes like Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson, Shaq Leonard and Braden Smith. But there were many costly early-round misses like Malik Hooker, Ben Banogu, Quincy Wilson, Kemoko Turay, Parris Campbell, Rock Ya-Sin and others. Ultimately, none was more devastating than Richardson, who was selected No. 4 overall in a loaded 2023 draft. Among those who went after Richardson? Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Devon Witherspoon, Bijan Robinson, Jalen Carter, Darnell Wright, Jahmyr Gibbs and multiple other high-end starters.

To be clear, Ballard wasn’t overwhelmingly wrong when it came to his personnel decisions or coaching hires. You could argue that only twice did the Colts look like an abject disaster — in the 2017 season, when Indianapolis lost Luck to a shoulder injury and went 4-12, and the 2022 discombobulation that went 4-12-1 and saw Frank Reich fired and Jeff Saturday shockingly plucked from television to be the team’s head coach with eight games remaining.

Outside of those two seasons, Ballard built rosters that always seemed on the edge of turning some kind of corner. Seemingly always close enough to a playoff window to keep Jim Irsay patiently leaning into personnel continuity rather than blowing up the front office and starting over. When people ask how Ballard lasted so long and got so many shots at different quarterbacks and head coaches, I think that is the answer. He never quite seized a window to compete for the playoffs consistently. But it was usually close enough to argue only a few tweaks or one more quarterback change was necessary.

The ownership change mattered

When Irsay-Gordon ascended to control of the team, there was a palpable sense amongst Ballard’s litany of friends in other personnel departments that he was on the clock heading into this season. He was simply tied to too many decisions that didn’t work, and a few that punched holes into the bottom of the franchise. Richardson’s failure was absolutely one of them. Leaning into a two-year $88-million deal for Jones coming off an Achilles injury was another. And the Sauce Gardner trade, which sent two valuable first-round picks to the New York Jets, began to look like a misstep that will only push the team’s quarterback issues out for years ahead.

While Gardner was an All-Pro cornerback, there were concerns that his style of play wouldn’t hold up well against officiating in the long term. Some on the Jets staff believed the game was moving away from his type of physicality at the position and that Gardner would eventually struggle to adjust. Injuries have also complicated his stint with the Colts.

As one personnel man familiar with the Jets, Ballard and Ballard’s scouting staff put it on Monday: “One phone call to any former New York Jets [coach or executive] would have kept them from doing that trade.”

That said, Gardner is still a young player capable of getting himself back on the right track. The league is filled with stories about cornerbacks who reclaimed their top-tier status after rough patches. But even if Gardner’s style evaluation wasn’t the mistake, the competitive window that Ballard believed he was trading into was. And counting on Jones to return this season and resume a high level of play from 2025 — which was an outlier in Jones’ career — proved to be too much.

Jim Irsay and his relentless confidence in Ballard were gone. Carlie Irsay-Gordon had also been aggressively involved in studying the team and its personnel and coaching ranks for years. Ballard had survived far more coach and quarterback changes than was normal. And there was the collapse from 8-2 to 8-9 last season to contend with.

Last January, when Irsay-Gordon made the decision to retain Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen after the 2025 collapse, she made her disappointment crystal clear in an end-of-season press conference.

“I’m pissed,” she told reporters. “We’re pissed.”

Nine months later, another disappointing start brought a different response. Carlie Irsay-Gordon was done. And so was Chris Ballard.

Thursday’s radio drops…

Joining Robby & Rexrode in Nashville, where there’s building concern over an 0-5 start toppling into 0-17 finish (click on photo):

And with Baskin and Phelps in Cleveland, where quarterback Shedeur Sanders has finally hired an agent. The question is, why now? (click on photo):

The Houston Texans have their first win and a new weapon in Marvin Harrison Jr. Now comes a trip to London and a chance to chip away at the Jacksonville Jaguars’ early control of the AFC South. At 4-1, Jacksonville keeps finding ways to win. Houston is still trying to find its footing, with a significant investment in Harrison adding another layer of intrigue to a team that has plenty left to prove.

Share

I joined Mike Patton on Touring the AFC South to unpack that trade, the risks for Houston and whether the Texans can make a run at Jacksonville. Mike and I also dug into the Jaguars’ resilience and Parker Washington’s emergence, along with some increasingly familiar questions in Nashville: How much worse can an 0-5 start get, and would another round of changes at head coach, quarterback or general manager actually help? Plus, a look at Daniel Jones, the Colts’ disappointing defense and how the cost of the Sauce Gardner trade weighs on Indianapolis’ path forward.

We also went around the league, starting with the unexpectedly unbeaten Vikings and whether Brian Flores’ defensive work can put him firmly back into the head coaching conversation. Other stops included the Cowboys’ looming test in Green Bay and what Mike Pettine can offer Christian Parker, how much faith to put in Cincinnati’s defense and playoff potential, and a messy but entertaining 49ers win over Seattle — complete with Mike Evans’ impact and an early Brock Purdy MVP discussion.

Tune in and enjoy the conversation. And as always, thank you for supporting NFL Blue Book.

On Sept. 28, we told you the Houston Texans were the team in the wheelhouse for a perfect Marvin Harrison Jr. destination. We also told you there were at least three NFL front offices that believed the languishing third-year wideout could be worth as much as a second-round pick.

On Oct. 11, the Texans proved both assessments to be true.

Houston acquired Harrison Jr. and a 2027 seventh-round pick from the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, in exchange for two assets: a 2027 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick. A bounty that, frankly, was a lot. Or at least it appeared to be rich when compared against other front office assessments that suggested a second-round pick for Harrison would likely be a late choice in the round, coming from a contender.

At 1-4 through five weeks of the season, the Texans are not a contender. So that second-round pick has a chance to be fairly high, in a 2027 draft that is expected to be especially deep.

The price paid by Houston sends a message. And that message is this: Despite Harrison Jr.’s shrinking production since being chosen with the fourth overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft, the Texans believe enough in him to pick up the 5th-year option on his rookie contract. To the tune of $17.198 million guaranteed in 2028.

That’s what this trade exchange says. That a player with five catches for 85 yards — in four games this season — is not as bad as the stat sheet or analytics suggest he is. The trigger for Harrison Jr.’s fully guaranteed 5th-year option comes up in May. And the Texans will be triggering it. After all, you don’t give up a second-round pick in a good draft just to rent Marvin Harrison Jr. for the remainder of the 2026 season and the balance of 2027. No, you give up that pick to get a snapshot of him through 2028.

Share

Now the Texans will, reuniting Harrison Jr. with his former Ohio State quarterback, C.J. Stroud, who was paired with the wideout during the 2021 and 2022 college football seasons.

Harrison Jr. is now the second player from the 2024 draft’s first round to be traded, joining the 10th overall pick from that draft, quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Late last month, McCarthy was traded from the Minnesota Vikings to the New York Giants for a 5th-round pick in the 2027 draft. Another trade that speaks volumes about a player’s 5th-year option, which will most certainly not be exercised in McCarthy’s case.

But these two trades got me thinking about that 2024 draft and where we are with next May’s 5th-year option decisions. Specifically, who is going to have their option picked up, who isn’t, and which players are currently fighting to nail down that lucrative extra season of guaranteed money.

With that in mind, here is a snapshot of the 2024 draft’s first round and where each player stands with a 5th-year option decision just months away …

Crown them: Players who will have their option picked up

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (No. 1 overall pick)

Williams’ current 5th-year option is projected at $29.97 million based on playtime markers. He’s the cornerstone of the franchise moving forward. Zero question about his option being picked up. It’s more likely that Chicago signs him to a long-term extension this summer that makes him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (No. 2 overall pick)

Daniels’ current 5th-year option is projected at $43.763 million based on his original-ballot (not alternate) selection to the Pro Bowl after the 2024 season. The intrigue here is whether the Commanders attempt to sign Daniels to a long-term extension following the season, which seems in some jeopardy following consecutive seasons with injuries to his non-throwing left elbow. His option will be picked up. His extension is another conversation that will depend on how the remainder of his season plays out. It’s worth noting that thus far, he has failed to recapture the magic of his 2024 rookie season.

Subscribe now

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (No. 3 overall pick)

As with Daniels, Maye’s 5th-year option is projected at $43.763 million, based on an original-ballot Pro Bowl selection in his banner 2025 season. And as with Daniels and Williams, there is zero question that his 5th-year option will be exercised. Despite his rough start through the season’s first three games, Maye is also likely to ink an extension in the coming offseason that could make him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, depending on the timing of an extension, which could coincide with multiple other major QB deals.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Houston Texans (No. 4 overall pick)

As I explained the Harrison Jr. situation above, the second-round trade compensation for Harrison Jr. indicates the Texans are committed to him through the 5th-year option.

Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers (No. 5 overall pick)

Alt’s current 5th-year option is projected at $27.501 million based on his original-ballot (not alternate) selection to the Pro Bowl after the 2025 season. Injuries have been an issue through his first two-plus seasons, but when he’s healthy, he’s a cornerstone and has both right and left tackle flexibility. His 5th-year option is a bargain price for talented offensive tackles. I’m not sure Alt will get the Penei Sewell treatment and sign an extension after his third NFL season, but given where salaries are heading, the Chargers could choose to get ahead of the market.

Share

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants (No. 6 overall pick)

Nabers’ 5th-year option is projected at $17.198 million, but could climb to $18.95 million if he hits 75 percent of available offensive snaps this season. While he has a Pro Bowl under his belt, he doesn’t qualify for the Pro Bowl tier salary because he was named as an alternate. Given his last two strong games, it’s not out of the question that Nabers could go on a run and be voted to the Pro Bowl, boosting his option to the $26.544 million tier. When healthy, he’s the Giants’ high-impact No. 1 wideout. Regardless of tier, his option is expected to be picked up. There’s also a chance that with a dominant finish, he’ll get the Jaxon Smith-Njigba treatment next offseason and negotiate an extension.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 13 overall pick)

Thanks to original-ballot Pro Bowl selections in 2024 and 2025, Bowers’ 5th-year option is already projected in the maximum tier at $17.479 million. He’s already arguably the league’s most dominant young tight end and should end up signing a contract extension next offseason. There’s one extremely interesting wrinkle here, though. Opponents have noted that through three games this season, new head coach Klint Kubiak is utilizing Bowers more like a big mismatch wideout than a classic tight end. That could create some interesting contract negotiations when it comes to an extension. Wide receiver money is exponentially more lucrative than tight end money. The question is whether Bowers’ representatives choose to pursue his extension from wide receiver comps or tight end comps. Stay tuned to this one.

Byron Murphy II, DT, Seattle Seahawks (No. 16 overall pick)

Unless he lands an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod this season, Murphy’s 5th-year option is projected at $15.222 million. Murphy has developed into a strong interior piece for Seattle’s defense, providing — and finishing — quarterback pressures. He had seven sacks during the 2025 Super Bowl campaign and has started this season with three sacks in five games. Extensions for defensive tackles aren’t usually a big priority after only three seasons, but it’s not unprecedented for high-end talents. See Jalen Carter’s extension with the Philadelphia Eagles this past offseason. I’d say Murphy likely won’t see extension movement until after 2027, but it’s not out of the question if he finishes this season the way it has started.

Subscribe now

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings (No. 17 overall pick)

Turner’s 5th-year option is projected at $14.244 million, but an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod this season would boost that number to $23.367 million. He’s off to a blistering start for the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings — with 5.5 sacks through five games and a league-leading 32 quarterback pressures. That’s trending toward an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod, a higher-tier 5th-year option and a likely contract extension next offseason. At this point, Turner is also a strong candidate to win A.P. Defensive Player of the Year.

Amarius Mims, OT, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 18 overall pick)

Mims’ 5th-year option is projected at $22.37 million, but an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod this season would boost that number to $27.501 million. He has yet to allow a sack this season and has been one of the league’s best pass-protecting right tackles. His run-blocking consistency is still a work in progress, but Mims could still garner Pro Bowl attention and land his higher-tier option. Depending how the Bengals perform through the remainder of the season, Mims’ contract path could mirror that of Chicago Bears right tackle Darnell Wright, who was signed to an extension after his third season. Given the Bengals don’t often move quickly to get ahead of the market, that would be a surprise, though.

Share

Jared Verse, EDGE, Cleveland Browns (No. 19 overall pick)

Thanks to a pair of original-ballot Pro Bowl nods in 2024 and 2025, Verse’s 5th-year option is already projected into the max tier at $27.958 million. Given that he was a major part of the Myles Garrett trade with the Los Angeles Rams and showcased high-end pass-rush ability in his first two seasons, the Browns will be picking that option up. The more interesting question is whether Verse will be prioritized for an extension this offseason. He has yet to record a sack for the Browns through five games and has only 10 quarterback pressures in that span. And while not everything shows up in the box score, there’s little arguing that Verse is off to a slower start than expected in Cleveland. How he finishes will factor into whether extension talks will gain significant traction this offseason. It might be a wait-and-see scenario.

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 22 overall pick)

An original-ballot Pro Bowl selection in 2025 has Mitchell’s projected option at $19.562 million. Another Pro Bowl this season would push that projection to $23.119 million. That isn’t out of the question for one of the NFL’s best young cover corners. His option will be picked up regardless of that tier. I also believe that part of the Eagles’ decision to trade offensive lineman Cam Jurgens earlier this season was to free up money to help with a Mitchell extension. Few in the league get ahead of the contract market more aggressively than Eagles general manager Howie Roseman. Maybe no other GM does. I expect that Mitchell’s option will be picked up and Roseman will work hard to get a long-term extension done prior to Philadelphia’s 2027 training camp.

Trending up: Players close to an option pickup

JC Latham, OT, Tennessee Titans (No. 7 overall pick)

Latham’s 5th-year option is projecting toward a $22.37 million playtime tier. His improving pass protection — including just six pressures allowed through five games — gives the Titans reason to keep investing in him despite some remaining inconsistency. The bottom line is that he’s showing year-over-year improvement and if that continues he will get his option triggered. I don’t think there will be a long-term offseason extension unless the Titans can get it done at a solid price.

Subscribe now

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (No. 9 overall pick)

Odunze’s 5th-year option is projecting toward an $18.95 million playtime tier. Thus far, Odunze hasn’t delivered the breakout expected of a top-10 pick, but you can argue that a system change and the development of Caleb Williams have played into it. Not to mention a Ben Johnson scheme that runs the ball and spreads passing opportunities around. What matters is Odunze is growing alongside Williams and even if Odunze becomes just a high-end No. 2 wideout, that price tag in 2028 for his option isn’t out of bounds. As for a long-term extension, he’s in the wait-and-see category unless he experiences a major breakout in the remainder of this season.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (No. 12 overall pick)

Nix’s 5th-year option is projected at $29.97 million via the playtime tier. His first two years as a starter have given the Broncos enough reason to maintain their investment, although this season’s uneven performances are keeping him just on the outside edge of the automatic-pickup group. Maybe I wouldn’t feel this way if head coach Sean Payton wasn’t suggesting he needs to see more aggression from Nix. But this is the same Payton that told me prior to the 2025 season that he could see Nix becoming a top-five quarterback in the NFL. I expect Denver will exercise the 5th-year option, but Nix needs a strong finish to this season if he expects to get a long-term extension done in the coming offseason. At this point, I’m not even sure Nix would slot as a QB earning $40 million per season. He has to change that.

Laiatu Latu, EDGE, Indianapolis Colts (No. 15 overall pick)

Latu’s 5th-year option is projecting toward the $15.972 million playtime threshold. His 8.5-sack performance in 2025 was promising enough to suggest a 5th-year option would be automatic — and it probably is. But he’s also notched one sack through this season’s first five games. I still believe he gets his option triggered. Especially given the reasonable price tag for a season of edge play. But Latu needs a strong finish to take it from an option pickup to extension talks.

Share

Nate Wiggins, CB, Baltimore Ravens (No. 30 overall pick)

Wiggins’ 5th-year option is projecting to the $14.253 million tier. Frankly, coverage cornerbacks are expensive and Wiggins’ coverage ability gives the Ravens plenty of motivation to exercise the option. Like everyone else in this category, he’s just barely outside of the “automatic” tier. Wiggins’ year-over-year improvement and position premium make the option a fairly easy decision. A strong finish on a contending team could end up putting him in line for an extension, too — if Baltimore wants to get ahead of his market.

Coin toss: Players who have work to do

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons (No. 8 overall pick)

Penix’s current 5th-year option is projected at $25.836 million, with limited playing time over his first two seasons preventing him from qualifying for the playtime bump. Now his encouraging return to the Falcons’ starting lineup has been interrupted by another injury concern, with a rib issue against Baltimore reinforcing an ongoing health quandary. If Penix Jr. can’t stay healthy and put together a long string of games this season, there’s a very real chance that his 5th-year option is declined. At this point, long-term extension talks aren’t even realistic. Particularly if the Falcons falter into a solid pick in a quarterback-rich 2027 draft.

Olu Fashanu, OT, New York Jets (No. 11 overall pick)

Fashanu’s 5th-year option is projected at $21.109 million, but can climb to $22.37 million with a playing time qualifier. I’d say he just barely falls into the coin-toss category, given that he’s a young starting left tackle who has a position premium and ceiling that makes him worth keeping through the 5th-year option. But he’s got some inconsistent pass protection aspects that at least make it a decision right now. A steady finish and he should have the option triggered fairly easily. But if the protection breakdowns and inconsistency continue, I can see the Jets simply declining the 5th-year and making 2027 a “show me” season.

Subscribe now

Taliese Fuaga, OT, New Orleans Saints (No. 14 overall pick)

Fuaga’s 5th-year option is projected at $22.37 million. His starting experience leans in his favor, but as with Fashanu with the Jets, his pass-protection struggles mean a guarantee north of $22 million is going to give the Saints pause if there aren’t signs of improvement. Bottom line, he needs to establish himself as a dependable right tackle over the remainder of the season to get out of the coin-toss tier.

Troy Fautanu, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20 overall pick)

Fautanu’s current 5th-year option is projected at $21.109 million. Playing time markers could boost it to $22.37 million. Losing nearly his entire first season to injury definitely hurt his development, so there’s an argument to be made that he’s still basically a rookie. I’d say he’s another tackle like Fashanu and Fuaga who just needs to show some improvement over the remainder of the season. Again, the left tackle position premium matters here.

Chop Robinson, LB, Miami Dolphins (No. 21 overall pick)

Robinson’s 5th-year option is projected at $16.493 million in the lowest linebacker tier, with 2026 being his first year as a dedicated starter. He showed a lot of promise early in his career, but he was drafted on a lot of upside that he hasn’t really scratched at this point. That said, his last two games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings flashed, too. There’s some optimism that he’s going in the right direction. If those are representative of him getting into a groove the rest of the season, he will be elevated out of the coin-toss tier fairly easily. Especially at a 5th-year price tag that isn’t wildly expensive.

Share

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 23 overall pick)

Thomas’ current 5th-year option is projected at $17.198 million. That can bump to $18.95 million with a playing time trigger. His rookie Pro Bowl appearance doesn’t count toward the escalator, because he made the team as an alternate rather than an original-ballot player. It’s hard to erase a fantastic rookie season from memory, but it’s fading quickly as Thomas Jr. has seemingly been phased out of the Jaguars’ offense. I could see Thomas, Harrison Jr., being a trade acquisition for a team that can give him a fresh start and values his speed. But if he finishes 2026 the way he has started through five games — with only 105 receiving yards thus far — it’s hard to see anyone taking a $17 million to $18 million chance just to see if that 2024 season still exists anywhere inside him.

Jordan Morgan, OT, Green Bay Packers (No. 25 overall pick)

Morgan’s 5th-year option is projected at $21.109 million. His limited role in his first two seasons removes him from a playing time bump. The Packers have committed to this opportunity at left tackle, but the early adjustment is hardly screaming for an automatic trigger of his 5th-year option. But as with the other offensive tackles in the coin-toss tier, even modest improvement and position premium could make locking Morgan in through 2028 an easy decision.

Graham Barton, C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 26 overall pick)

Barton’s 5th-year option is projected at $22.37 million, thanks to a consistent starting role since his rookie season. Normally, a three-year staple starter wouldn’t be in a coin-toss tier, but that $22.37 million is a lot at the center position. Basically, he’d be earning a paycheck that’s suggestive of him being among the elite at his position. Right now, Barton isn’t. But if he finishes out this season strong and remains a reliable cog, Tampa Bay could justify the price by projecting that he’ll grow into an upper-tier center group by 2028. But for now, the price just seems a bit prohibitive.

Subscribe now

Darius Robinson, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals (No. 27 overall pick)

Robinson’s 5th-year option is projected at $14.244 million. Missing most of his rookie season and two games in 2025 has locked him out of a potential playing time bump. A shade over $14 million isn’t exactly a king’s ransom for an edge these days, but Robinson’s production through 26 games is not worth that price, either. A new defensive coaching staff and his role as a platoon player don’t bode well for his option getting picked up. At some point, the untapped potential needs to start paying out. And thus far, it hasn’t.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (No. 28 overall pick)

Worthy’s 5th-year option is projected at $18.95 million thanks to playing time triggers that should be reached in 2026. His role in the Kansas City offense just doesn’t seem to be growing, which makes a near-$19 million price tag hard to swallow in 2028. His speed hasn’t gone anywhere, but health and other factors have muddled progress — at a time when the Chiefs need his production, no less. The injury to Tyquan Thornton could end up opening another lane of opportunity, but Worthy is going to have to seize it to get his 5th-year option triggered.

Tyler Guyton, OT, Dallas Cowboys (No. 29 overall pick)

Guyton’s 5th-year option is projected at $22.37 million due to playing time qualification. This despite his 2025 season being limited to 10 games. The injury factor continues to be concerning and the Cowboys are already looking at a bit of a cap pinch if they’re going to try to set aside money for George Pickens or Joey Porter Jr. That said, Guyton has looked like he’s settling in at the left tackle spot. Position premium will mean something here, if Guyton can stay healthy. If he continues trending upward and being available on Sundays, he should move out of the coin-toss tier pretty easily.

Share

2027 is the end: Players who won’t have their option picked up

J.J. McCarthy, QB, New York Giants (No. 10 overall pick)

McCarthy’s current 5th-year option is projected at $25.836 million in the basic tier. There won’t be a playing time bump after he lost his entire rookie season and parts of 2025 to injury. Not that it matters. The Giants already have an existing investment in Jaxson Dart, which makes paying McCarthy a luxury that makes no sense. The likelier path is McCarthy’s 5th-year option being declined and him playing out the 2027 season as a backup/emergency plan if Dart’s health fails again.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers (No. 31 overall pick)

Pearsall’s current 5th-year option is projected at $17.198 million. His spate of injuries — including one that ended his 2026 season before it started — eliminates any chance of any bump out of that bracket. While Pearsall has certainly flashed talent, he just can’t stay healthy. I’m not sure how the 49ers could gamble on locking him in for 2028 at that price when they have no idea what he’s going to look like in 2027 coming off knee surgery. He needs to show that he can return and stay on the field, then prove that he can carve out a meaningful role. That’s not the type of player that you commit more than $17 million to. They already wasted money gambling on Brandon Aiyuk. I just don’t see it happening again. So 2027 becomes a “show me” season.

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (No. 32 overall pick)

Legette’s current 5th-year option is projected at $17.198 million. That could bump to $18.95 million with a playing time trigger. As with Pearsall, I’m not sure the number matters. Despite opportunities, Legette’s role has just never developed in Carolina. At this point, it would take injuries to get him any kind of consistent chances the rest of this season. If he’s not traded for a late-round pick swap — and he might be — I expect the Panthers will decline his option and play out 2027 with low expectations.

5th-year option no longer available

Terrion Arnold, CB, Seattle Seahawks (No. 24 overall pick)

Arnold no longer has a 5th-year option projection because his original rookie contract ended after Detroit waived him and he cleared waivers.

Thursday’s radio drops…

Joining Robby & Rexrode in Nashville, where recent executive firings and an 0-4 start have fans reaching for early-season pitchforks (click on photo):

Share NFL Blue Book with Charles Robinson

And with Baskin and Phelps in Cleveland, where optimism is starting to creep into the Browns fan base — with an ideal schedule through the Week 11 bye (click on photo):

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told the surrounding NFL world in July that his mentality might be changing — that saving future resources and starving present improvement might no longer apply.

With the echoes of so many empty “all-in” promises in our heads, many of us rolled our eyes.

Then came the trade for offensive tackle Broderick Jones in August. And last week, the acquisition of cornerback Joey Porter Jr. All told, the Cowboys unholstered four draft picks and fired — a second, third and two sixth-rounders — in exchange for Porter Jr., Jones and a fourth-rounder.

Share

On Wednesday, Jones said the Cowboys still may not be done, noting that “the door is always open,” while speaking to Dallas’ flagship radio station 105.3 The Fan.

“I said at the start of training camp — I’m willing to put some things out there that are for today, lean more [toward] today than they would be three years from now,” Jones said.

Last week, I joined The DLLS Cowboys Podcast with Kevin Gray Jr. to discuss the Porter Jr. trade and what trade could still be in the works.

On Thursday, NFL Blue Book will be diving into which players are likely to be on the Cowboys’ radar as the deadline approached. But until then, enjoy the trade thoughts shared on The DLLS Cowboys Podcast…

In August, Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach saw the path laid out for wideout Tyquan Thornton.

As the franchise was in the middle of sorting out the wide receiver spot in training camp, I asked Veach what the results were showing. At the time, the top of the depth chart was a mystery. Rashee Rice had yet to take command of the dominant No. 1 “go-to” role for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Xavier Worthy was still struggling to build upon an encouraging rookie season in 2024. And the third option? It felt like it was an open competition. Aside from the reality that Veach saw a player emerging who might steal the entire show in 2026.

Tyquan Thornton.

It had shown over the last three weeks of the season, with Thornton catching 11 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns, with his crowning game appearing to take shape on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. The 26-year-old Thornton was piecing together a career game, catching five passes for 111 yards and a pair of touchdowns — looking as if he had emerged as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wideout in the wake of a hamstring injury to Rice — when disaster struck. In the fourth quarter of an eventual 30-27 win, Thornton sustained a gruesome left ankle dislocation on a vital 55-yard completion. On Monday, it was determined the injury is expected to sideline him for at least the next three to four months of the season.

And just like that, the Chiefs’ wide receiver position went from taking shape to dissolving at the top of the depth chart.

Subscribe now

Between Thornton’s potentially season-ending injury and Rice’s hamstring issue — which could linger — Kansas City now finds itself searching for replacements. And a familiar face emerged quickly: former Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill, a free agent who has been rehabilitating a significant left knee injury since Week 4 of the 2025 season.

That possibility of a reunion moved beyond speculation Monday, when Hill’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, confirmed he planned to begin negotiating with multiple teams, notably including Kansas City. The 32-year-old Hill has been available since Miami released him in February, but signing a contract and returning to the field are separate checkpoints. Hill is targeting November for his return as he continues recovering from a dislocated left knee and multiple torn ligaments, meaning even a quick agreement would leave the Chiefs with an immediate hole to fill.

The appeal of a reunion is obvious. Hill spent his first six NFL seasons in Kansas City, and his familiarity with Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense could ease the transition once he is healthy. The uncertainty is what version of Hill they would be getting. His history makes him an intriguing potential addition for the stretch run, but until he demonstrates how much of his explosiveness has survived the injury, Kansas City would be betting on his recovery as much as its shared past.

With that uncertainty in mind — and the deficit at wideout with the loss of Thornton and a limping Rice — here’s a look at five other wideouts who could step into the void before the trade deadline. Their value and availability are fluctuating from week to week, but all could provide upside for the Chiefs for at least the remainder of 2026. And in the case of a few of them, into 2027 as well…

Share

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

Through four games, Harrison Jr. still hasn’t established a consistent role in Mike LaFleur’s offense. He scored a touchdown on Sunday, but his inclusion in the scheme is still largely an afterthought or a decoy. Tight end Trey McBride, wideout Michael Wilson and running back Jeremiyah Love have relegated Harrison Jr. to the fourth option. He needs a fresh start elsewhere and could be had for a late second-round pick, or a third-round pick with the ability to graduate to a second-round pick based on performance markers over the remainder of this season.

He has a rookie contract that runs through 2027 with $5.62 million in salary and a roster bonus scheduled for next season. That matters with the Chiefs’ cap pinch. The fifth-year option is a more pricey projected $18.95 million. His size, age and early-career production suggest he’s still a useful player in the right scheme. Within the Chiefs, he’d give Patrick Mahomes a larger target with red-zone ability. There’s still some long-term upside here if the staff believes in Harrison Jr., but several front offices that spoke with NFL Blue Book view him as a rental through the 2027 season.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Following a breakout rookie season, Thomas Jr. has done little more than lose opportunities to Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers in head coach Liam Coen’s offense. Like Harrison Jr., he’s locked in through 2027, with a fifth-year option in 2028 that is projected at $17.2 million. His rookie totals of 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns are starting to become a distant memory. But Thomas Jr.’s size/speed combination still makes him an intriguing addition. He would represent an explosive outside receiver option for the Chiefs, which would fill the Thornton role.

Subscribe now

The problem here? After speaking to sources in Jacksonville, I think he’s more highly valued internally than public perception suggests. His target share is low, but he scored a crucial touchdown in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. With Travis Hunter playing 100 percent of his snaps on defense in that game, Thomas Jr. provides some wideout role depth that is valued significantly inside the team. Even if it means Thomas Jr. only occasionally shows up with a big play in the box score. While I don’t think the Jaguars will pick up his fifth-year option, I do believe the Jacksonville front office still values Thomas Jr. and his youth enough to keep him on the roster through 2027. That puts his price tag — like Harrison Jr.’s — in the late second-round range…or a third-round and fifth-round pick.

Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns

Jeudy is a secondary piece in Browns head coach Todd Monken’s offense. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. and rookie wideouts Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have dominated the top three pass-catching roles. Meanwhile, Jeudy caught three passes in Thursday’s win over Pittsburgh, but he has just five receptions for 62 yards and no touchdowns this season. That looks like a dim ceiling, but his 90 catches and 1,229 receiving yards in 2024 suggest there’s more available than Cleveland is currently getting out of him. For the Chiefs, the appeal would be adding an experienced route runner who could give Mahomes another option on intermediate throws. It’s worth mentioning that Jeudy is still just 27 years old. He should still have productive years ahead.

Share

His immediate financial fit is manageable, too. His 2026 base salary is only $1.5 million, with an acquiring team responsible for the remaining portion. Next season is a bit more complicated. He’s under contract through 2027, but is scheduled to earn $17 million in non-guaranteed money. That’s a sizable decision for a Chiefs franchise already dealing with a cap squeeze. I’d view Jeudy as a rental for the remainder of this season, with the possibility of keeping him if the production justifies a reworked contract. The complication? Cleveland is 3-1, and Jeudy’s diminished role doesn’t necessarily mean the Browns will surrender veteran depth while they’re winning. Maybe that outlook changes by early November. But right now, a winning team isn’t in a hurry to deal anything. I’d put Jeudy’s trade value in the fourth-round range, or potentially a fifth-round pick that graduates to a fourth with performance markers. At that price, there’s enough proven production for the Chiefs to make the call and monitor the situation leading up to the trade deadline.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

Ridley has largely dropped off the map in the scheme of Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. He has three catches for 48 yards this season, including just one catch for 13 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee’s additions of Wan’Dale Robinson and rookie Carnell Tate have dramatically reduced Ridley’s role in the offense. Despite that reality, the appeal to the Chiefs would be adding an experienced outside receiver who could give Mahomes another option on intermediate routes and downfield throws. It wasn’t that long ago that Ridley caught 64 passes for 1,017 yards and four touchdowns in 2024. So there’s some recent production to support a bet.

Subscribe now

His immediate financial fit is more manageable following an offseason pay cut. He’s now carrying a 2026 base salary of $5.49 million, with an acquiring team responsible for the remaining portion and applicable per-game roster bonuses. Next season is considerably more expensive, with a $19.74 million base salary and another $2.51 million in potential roster bonuses. But none of that is guaranteed. I’d view him as a rental for the remainder of this season, with any longer stay dependent on his production and a reworked deal. Tennessee’s 0-4 start could make moving a veteran for draft capital increasingly appealing, although keeping experienced help around Cam Ward remains a reason for the Titans to hold him. I’d put Ridley’s value in the sixth-round range, potentially graduating to a fifth with playing-time or postseason markers. Tennessee absorbing some remaining salary could justify a better pick, too.

Marquise Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Through four games, injuries have prevented Marquise “Hollywood” Brown from establishing any receiving role in Philadelphia. Playing in only one game thus far, he has no catches, with DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Makai Lemon accounting for most of the wideout production. He wasn’t particularly noticeable in training camp. Now an ankle injury has sidelined him for the last two games, including Sunday’s loss to the Rams. That makes his availability part of the evaluation, too. For the Chiefs, the appeal would be familiarity. Brown caught 49 passes for 587 yards and five touchdowns with Kansas City last season. He already knows the offense and has experience working with Patrick Mahomes, which should shorten the adjustment period for a midseason return. His speed could help fill the Thornton role and give the Chiefs another option on downfield throws.

Share

The financial fit is manageable, too. Brown’s one-year deal includes a $1.3 million base salary for 2026, with an acquiring team responsible for the remaining portion. His contract voids in February, making this a rental for the remainder of the season unless the sides negotiate another deal. That matters with Kansas City’s cap. The complication is Philadelphia’s own need for depth. Smith and Dallas Goedert also missed Sunday’s game, which could make the Eagles reluctant to move an experienced receiver once Brown is healthy. I’d put his trade value in the sixth-round range, or potentially a seventh-round pick that graduates to a sixth with playing-time markers. By November’s deadline, healthy returns could make this a doable deal for the Chiefs and Eagles.

Even with Joey Porter Jr. in the fold, I’m not convinced the Dallas Cowboys are done poking around the trade market.

Despite a stockpile of draft picks that is down to nine over the next two years — three in 2027 and six in 2028 — I still think Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will tinker with another deal heading into the November trade deadline. Maybe it will aim at a pass-rush need, or address a hole created by injuries. Whatever the move, it will be calculated to give a talented roster every chance to win. Especially knowing this will likely be George Pickens’ last season in Dallas.

Share

I joined Sports Night’s Josh Graham to chop up that possibility, along with how Porter Jr. gives the Cowboys defense some much-needed flexibility moving forward. Josh and I also touched on the Houston Texans’ struggles, the surprising aspect of J.J. McCarthy’s Minnesota Vikings exit, and the Raiders’ potential luxury dilemma: weighing Kirk Cousins’ strong start against the need to get Fernando Mendoza some snaps this season.

Tune in and enjoy the show. And as always, thank you for supporting NFL Blue Book.

Thursday’s radio drops…

Joining Robby & Rexrode in Nashville, where the Cam Ward conversation is pondering a benching (click on photo):

Share

And with Baskin and Phelps in Cleveland, where the Browns are positioned to gain some clout on Thursday Night Football:

As “beginning of the end” assessments go, Monday’s termination of the J.J. McCarthy project has no shortage of data points for the Minnesota Vikings to draw from.

A line could be traced back to the meniscus tear that halted a vital rookie season for the former Vikings quarterback in 2024. Or when a plan to keep McCarthy paired with a capable veteran starter in 2025 was fumbled away. It could be connected to various lingering injuries, spates of immaturity, mechanical issues — or simply the inability to throw a football with consistent accuracy. Speak to 10 people about when the end began, and you’ll likely get 10 different answers that all share a connective tissue of frustration.

For me, I knew the McCarthy project was over during February’s NFL combine. Long before before Monday’s trade, which sent the third-year quarterback to the New York Giants in exchange for a fifth-round pick.

In late February, I was having a lunch meeting with a league source, attempting to find some shape to the coming offseason quarterback market. For years, the source had showcased an accurate understanding of what the coming veteran QB migration would look like — which quarterbacks were subject to trade offers, which teams were connected with specific free agents, and what the coming wave of contracts would look like. In February, that trade group included McCarthy, who some executives were already counting amongst a group of “pocket listed” players who could get calls if certain scenarios played out.

By the time I traveled to Indianapolis, I had been told McCarthy was a trade candidate. But after my quarterbacks meeting with the source, I knew two things: the Vikings were seeking a new starting quarterback, and McCarthy’s trade clock had realistically begun to tick.

The underlying message? When Minnesota found a viable alternative as a starter for the 2026 season, McCarthy’s future would begin to point out of the franchise.

Subscribe now

As I wrote in February, March and April, the reasons why were varied. And they’d be fleshed out over the course of the offseason, as I tried to understand how Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell went from referring to McCarthy as “our young franchise quarterback” to demoting him to the No. 3 spot to start this season.

After talking with a handful of sources connected to McCarthy, O’Connell, former general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the Vikings coaching staff and Sam Darnold, here are some of the key circumstances that contributed to McCarthy’s end in Minnesota…

The developmental plan for McCarthy changed quickly

Initially, when the Vikings staff and front office went through their assessment of McCarthy in the draft process, the first plan was to have him begin his rookie season as the team’s No. 3 quarterback. Over time, McCarthy would absorb O’Connell’s offense, work on his mechanics and eventually be considered for a move into the backup role behind Sam Darnold. Patience would be king.

That “No. 3” plan went out the window almost immediately in McCarthy’s rookie training camp. He put together two weeks of practice that had the coaching staff and front office buzzing, then added a sharp preseason performance against the Las Vegas Raiders. By the time the Vikings were heading to face the Cleveland Browns in joint practices of that 2024 training camp, McCarthy had been elevated to the backup spot and was heading into a legitimate competition with Darnold to be the Week 1 starter. While there’s an argument to be made that McCarthy earned his way into a competition, some believe the abandoning of the initial slow-and-steady plan foreshadowed something about patience…or lack of it.

Share

Then came the injury

The meniscus injury that McCarthy suffered midway through his rookie training camp was more severe than initially thought, knocking him out for his rookie season. This complicated matters on a number of fronts. There were the lost reps, the inability to drill on his mechanics, and now the mental hurdles that McCarthy was going to have to endure watching Darnold lead the team. As one source put it, the injury reality “gutted” everyone involved, from McCarthy to the coaching staff and front office.

But there was another layer to the problem, too. McCarthy was coming out of a Michigan passing offense that was fundamentally not like the one that O’Connell operated in Minnesota. There were scheme overlaps in the run concepts, but McCarthy was not going to play quarterback in Minnesota the way he did at Michigan. The formations, personnel and route concepts were all going to be more complicated and voluminous. Which meant that, naturally, he was going to have sizable struggles to overcome even if he had stayed healthy. Which he did not.

Concerning maturity and focus

One source said McCarthy was known as a “pleaser.” And 90 percent of the time, he was giving everything the coaching staff and front office were looking for. But there was a 10 percent margin that also gave pause, and it was usually just tied to maturity and focus. “Acting JJ-ish” was a phrase some have used. In quarterback meetings, there were moments when he either seemed distracted or spent time focusing on details that didn’t matter. Some of this can sound petty and insignificant to the outside world, but coaches from the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree have a high level of expectation when it comes to their quarterbacks being hyper-focused in preparation.

As one source described it, little things can eventually weave into larger perceptions about personality and seriousness. When young quarterbacks are thrust into a position to lead immediately, organizations expect them to grow up fast when it comes to interactions and projections to the surrounding team. Some of this bled over into the public eye, too. Notably when McCarthy spoke to the media about having a different persona during games that he called “Nine.” From a perception standpoint, it landed awkwardly with some inside the franchise.

The plan to keep McCarthy paired with a veteran in 2025

As the 2024 season progressed, there was a hope inside the Vikings to keep McCarthy paired with Darnold for another season. But after Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-3 record, there was a perception by some in the building that both players were looking at a future in Minnesota in “me or him” terms. McCarthy had been preparing to be the Vikings’ franchise quarterback, and Darnold felt like his play had earned him a legitimate long-term commitment.

Minnesota believed it also had a second option on the table if it couldn’t walk a tightrope and keep both Darnold and McCarthy in the fold: Daniel Jones. But this is where hindsight haunts the Vikings. Jones could have been put to a contract decision before the franchise tag deadline. In that scenario, if Jones told the Vikings he wasn’t signing a deal to remain in 2025, the Vikings could have pivoted and put a franchise tag on Darnold, then worked to iron out whatever awkwardness existed in the quarterback room moving forward.

Ultimately, Jones wasn’t put to a decision before the tag deadline. Darnold went to free agency, and Jones later chose to sign a one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts, seeing a cleaner path to a starting job and a potential long-term deal. That’s how the Vikings lost their preferred plan to keep McCarthy paired with a capable veteran in 2025. The result was McCarthy ascending to the starting job in 2025 — which, in hindsight, was too soon.

Frustrating injuries and poor performances

Before I get into this part of McCarthy’s issues, I’ll just reiterate that this is where the whole patience debate kicks back in. McCarthy was drafted with a patient developmental path in mind. Due to a litany of circumstances, that imploded. There’s an argument to be made that the Vikings could have pressed on with him through the problems, even if it meant taking a step back as a team. But there is a counterargument to this approach, too — especially when you have an otherwise talented roster. I am reminded of what Bill Walsh said about this in Finding the Winning Edge, which is considered by many across the NFL to be arguably the greatest franchise-building manual ever written.

In Walsh’s words:

If the Vikings believe McCarthy falls into this category, then the only choice was to trade him. And that’s where a measurement of his injuries and football development comes in.

Beyond the meniscus tear that cost him the 2024 season, McCarthy also dealt with a high ankle sprain, concussion, and hairline fracture in his throwing hand — all in his second year. The result was missing seven starts in 2025 that were vital to work on mechanics that needed continued refinement. The coaching staff tried to work through that during the 2025 season, and it was met with poor results.

The frustration of some in the franchise was that McCarthy simply wasn’t accurate enough. He missed too many throws. And not just difficult ones. He missed opportunities that were engineered for him to get simple completions. Whether it was his ball placement, throwing with proper situational velocity, body mechanics, identifying defensive coverages, making proper calls at the line, or any number of other issues, there was a realization that McCarthy had a much longer road than anticipated to develop as a passer in O’Connell’s offense.

The Vikings figured that issue out after drafting McCarthy, and it can be traced back to his limited number of pass attempts while playing at Michigan. McCarthy averaged just over 22 pass attempts per game in his two years as the Wolverines’ starter. He also rarely had to carry the Michigan offense in Jim Harbaugh’s run-dominated scheme. The result? The level of his passing ability became a projection, with coaches and evaluators essentially surmising, “Well, if Michigan had thrown it more, then McCarthy’s skillset would look like this.”

When you put all of this together, McCarthy’s failure in Minnesota is something that has to be owned by the entire organization — and by McCarthy. For two years, there were blinking red lights everywhere. Which is how you end up trading a coveted high quarterback pick after only two years. This happens with quarterbacks. Dredge up everything that went wrong with Trey Lance and the San Francisco 49ers. There is some familiar overlap between the two when it comes to mistakes that were made by both the coaching staff and front office.

Of course, none of it matters now. McCarthy is a New York Giant. Darnold is in Seattle. Jones is in Indianapolis. Adofo-Mensah is in the 49ers front office. And O’Connell is still in Minnesota, staring at a quarterback position that has yet to be resolved.

Two years ago, Marvin Harrison Jr. was coming off what would be his best back-to-back turn as an Arizona Cardinal. His second and third games of the 2024 season had seen the rookie wideout put up nine catches for 194 yards and three touchdowns, stoking the seemingly league-wide belief that a generational receiver was officially on his way.

Now 32 games into his NFL career, the only thing generational about Harrison Jr. has been his stunningly fast disappearance.

It’s a precipitous drop that stretched through Week 3 of this season, with the Cardinals wideout catching three passes for 40 yards in a 36-30 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. That stat line raised his season production to 73 yards on four catches and an anemic nine targets. And while it represented a bump over Harrison Jr.’s virtual nonexistence in the first two weeks, it’s hard to ignore that his five targets against the 49ers came in a game that saw Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett throw 52 times. Which means that in what is now considered an “encouraging” game, Harrison Jr. had a 9.6-percent target share.

That’s the percentage of a player who is the fourth option in the passing game. At best. Which continues to telegraph the reality surrounding Harrison Jr. in this Cardinals core game plan. We don’t have to ask head coach Mike LaFleur what role Harrison Jr. holds in his offense, because LaFleur’s offense has already told us for three consecutive weeks. More than anything else, Harrison Jr. is filling the role of being a decoy. And the less he produces in that role, the less valuable he will become. To the point that even the decoy role won’t really work.

Subscribe now

This is what has fueled the trade speculation around Harrison Jr. He looks like a player who has been phased out of the offense for any variety of reasons. Whether it’s lack of separation, lack of effort, poor routes or just a misalignment with the culture this Arizona Cardinals coaching staff is trying to build, it’s not meshing with whatever Harrison Jr. is still capable of bringing to the table.

With that in mind, I spoke to seven front offices over the course of last week — three general managers and four high-ranking personnel executives — attempting to gauge Harrison Jr.’s potential value on the block. This is what I was told…

What is Marvin Harrison Jr. worth?

To one general manager, there is value.

“He is a player that is getting judged relative to what he was supposed to be, while people are losing sight of the fact that he is still a useful player,” the GM said.

So what is a useful player like Harrison Jr. worth on the trade market?

As with any attempt to dial in a player’s market, it’s a sliding scale of value depending on who you speak with. Depending on the age of the player and the circumstances on his current team, some personnel departments are willing to continue leaning heavily on the strength of a player’s college tape and their own internal scouting assessment leading into a draft. If they feel there are circumstances that have caused a player to have a capped ceiling, they are willing to factor that heavily into the trade value assigned to a player.

Conversely, other personnel departments orbit more closely around what a player has shown on the NFL level. Regardless of whether their college tape was superb and an internal scouting report assigned a high grade, these departments prefer a “believe what a player has shown you” approach. The belief being that if a great college player has struggled on the NFL level — especially with things they can control like effort and attitude — then that’s more likely the most accurate representation of who that player is.

Interestingly, the analysis of Harrison Jr.’s trade value fit solidly into those two categories between the seven personnel departments. The result? These three categories emerged:

Share

What trade partners make sense when it comes to Harrison Jr.?

There are three schools of thought on this.

• First: Rule out the LaFleur/McVay/Shanahan coaching staffs. If Harrison Jr. isn’t working in Mike LaFleur’s scheme, the reasons why are going to get shared through this coaching tree. That poisons the trade well with franchises that have ties and access to Mike LaFleur’s mindset when it comes to Harrison Jr.’s fit in the scheme.

• Second: Seek familiarity in the times that Harrison Jr. has had success. The most obvious connection would be the Houston Texans, whose starting quarterback C.J. Stroud overlapped with Harrison Jr. in 2022 when the wideout exploded to stardom. The Texans have wideout needs and Stroud and Harrison Jr. once shared a strong connection at Ohio State. After Stroud, the next most prominent connection, from what I’ve been told, is Buffalo Bills wide receivers coach Drew Terrell. Terrell was the wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals in 2024 and 2025, which gives him firsthand experience and overlap with Harrison Jr. when he had his most success at the NFL level. Another Bills bonus? Like Thomas Jr. in Jacksonville and that 1-for-1 scenario, Buffalo wideout Keon Coleman also appears to be a fresh-start trade candidate who can’t find footing in the team’s offense.

  Subscribe now

• Third: Straight-up need. Teams like the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts all have needs at wideout. The Texans and Bills also fall squarely into this category. Given all the variables, the Texans’ need and Stroud’s history with Harrison Jr. at Ohio State would seem to put the Texans into a sweet spot when it comes to setting up for success.

Of course, Harrison Jr. and the Cardinals could turn this all into wasted energy in the coming weeks. If Sunday’s very slight uptick in Harrison Jr.’s production is a larger indicator of him starting a path back to relevancy in the offense, we should be able to see it in the next two weeks, when the Cardinals face the New York Giants and Detroit Lions. The Giants are in the middle of the pack when it comes to defensive passing metrics, while the Detroit Lions are dead last — or close to it — in most key measures. If Harrison Jr. is just now starting his upward trek in Mike LaFleur’s scheme, we should see it the next two weeks.

And if he isn’t?

Keep an eye on what teams get desperate at the wide receiver spot and also the Nov. 10 trade deadline. Particularly if the Cardinals fall out of postseason contention in the next six weeks. Arizona faces five potential playoff teams in those six games — or six if you want to include the 2-1 Giants. If this season falls flat in those six weeks…and if Harrison Jr. continues to fall flat with it … the odds of a trade are only going to intensify.

Thursday’s radio drops…

Joining Robby & Rexrode in Nashville, where there are signs of life for the Tennessee Titans:

Share

And with Baskin and Phelps in Cleveland, where Deshaun Watson has earned himself additional runway as the starter for the Browns. Click on the photo to watch the spot:

Promises were made when I crossed paths with Touring the AFC South podcast host Mike Patton in training camp.

We were both taking in a Tennessee Titans practice — cooking in the Nashville heat and humidity — when we made a plan to link up and dissect the AFC South’s start to the season. The division has fared…well…poorly through the first two weeks, with a 1-7 start. We’re here to break down what broke down and how it projects out to Week 3 and beyond.

There’s also some bonus talk about some 0-2 and 2-0 teams, including a winless franchise that has missed 22 (!) tackles through two games and an undefeated team that might have the league’s best single-unit turnaround thus far.

Tune in to find out which is which!

Looking back at the Week 2 NFL games in our second recalibration of the season…

Jayden Daniels’ injury creates some contract extension apprehension next offseason

The worst fear associated with Jayden Daniels the draft prospect is starting to materialize as a reality for Jayden Daniels the NFL player.

That’s what I thought when I saw Daniels dislocate his left elbow for the second straight season on Sunday. A moment that occurred on a garden-variety non-contact play. An offensive lineman stepped on his foot, he stumbled and instinctively tried to brace himself with the same left arm that he injured in 2025. The limb bent into a jarring angle for the viewing audience, leaving Tom Brady to blurt out “Oh shit” on a nationally televised broadcast.

And just like that, a world of potential problems opened for Daniels and the Washington Commanders’ future.

This is the insensitive but necessary part of analyzing this situation. Because while Daniels’ arm is going to eventually heal, the concern over his long-term viability may not. As with Tua Tagovailoa with the Miami Dolphins and Kyler Murray with the Arizona Cardinals — and a litany of other quarterbacks who had their paths altered by physical punishment — the health of Daniels is now going to become a focal point of his career. When he moves forward from this, every big hit will be accompanied by breath-holding and a nagging question.

Is he going to get up from this?

Subscribe now

It’s a cruel plight. But also one that traces all the way back to his draft evaluation, when Daniels’ frame and penchant for taking punishment gave some evaluators pause. I distinctly remember a conversation with an AFC personnel man at the 2024 combine, when Daniels was materializing as a top-five pick. The evaluator noted Daniels’ slender build as one that doesn’t hold up for QBs at the NFL level. Daniels was a shade over 6-foot-3 and weighed in at 210 pounds.

“There’s definitely durability risk,” he said. “He can get stronger, but I don’t think his frame is going to change much.”

When the Commanders drafted Daniels, that durability concern — and Daniels taking big hits in college — was one of the first things general manager Adam Peters was asked to address.

“I think with any quarterback, not just Jayden, you want to tell them to get down, not take the hit,” Peters said. “If that’s your biggest problem with somebody, then it’s a pretty good deal there. And so, we’ll encourage him to not take those hits. But he is so competitive, he is so tough. He got up every time. No questions about his toughness or his durability. I think wanting him to play 17 to 20-plus games every year, we want to make sure he takes care of his body and we know he will.”

That was April 25 of 2024. Flash forward 879 days, and now there have to be some questions about Daniels’ durability.

It’s going to be a complicated part of the mathematics that lie ahead, too. Because some decisions are coming. With a fully healthy season and a good performance, it was a virtual certainty that Daniels was going to be signed to a contract extension when he becomes eligible for one in the coming offseason. Now? Peters has to at least pause and consider waiting for an additional year to see if Daniels can get through 2027 without issues.

Even with the elbow injury, I expect Washington will pick up the fifth-year option on Daniels’ rookie deal. The Commanders have to make that commitment by May, which will lock in Daniels for the 2028 season at a projected guaranteed salary of $43.763 million. But the long-term extension is suddenly looking like a more precarious dilemma. Just over two years ago, the Dolphins signed Tagovailoa to a four-year $212-million extension, despite concussion worries and a habit of taking punishment. The following season, he missed six games after suffering another concussion and a hip injury. His play then steadily declined in 2025, leading Miami to cut him after paying out nearly $100 million of the extension.

That’s a mistake that resonated throughout the league. And now it will certainly echo in Peters’ mind when it comes to Daniels, too. Not only at the contract table, but also in terms of when Daniels can play and protect himself again.

Share

The Los Angeles Chargers are a very troubling 0-2 team

The Chargers’ start is concerning. But the offensive ineptitude has been shocking.

When I went through training camp, there was palpable excitement throughout the organization over the addition of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. He seemed to be challenging quarterback Justin Herbert in a healthy way, and there was significant anticipation of a more creative scheme. McDaniel was expected to unlock Herbert’s next level and amp up the juice in the running game. Through two losses — against the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders — the Chargers have produced 28 points. Not counting the Los Angeles Rams, who play their second game tonight, only the Miami Dolphins (26), Pittsburgh Steelers (23) and Atlanta Falcons (16) have scored fewer points.

Against the Raiders, the Chargers fumbled six times — six! — and Herbert threw two interceptions. The only thing preventing total catastrophe was Los Angeles recovering five of those fumbles. The timing looks off (see the critical 3rd-and-1 play where the ball was snapped into a motioning Tre Harris), Herbert lacks rhythm and the offensive line is already struggling with injuries. You can see the disruption caused by the season-ending knee injury to starting center Tyler Biadasz, which has rippled into problems at the guard spot.

When I went through another AFC West team’s training camp, I spent some time with a coach who knows McDaniel well. And he was already skeptical of the personality and schematic partnership. He noted some of the run-game identity differences between Harbaugh and McDaniel and questioned how they’d mesh. And he opined that if the offense faltered, Harbaugh wouldn’t wait long to start meddling with the scheme and calls. But he also added that McDaniel has the type of disposition to adapt and succeed if he’s given the time.

“Mike navigated it with Kyle Shanahan and it worked out,” he said. “He’s got the right temperament.”

That “figuring it out” process can’t begin fast enough. The Chargers’ next nine games feature eight 2025 playoff teams. Five of those eight games are on the road. To put it simply, Weeks 1 and 2 should have been home tune-ups. Instead, both became wake-ups.

Subscribe now

With Michael Penix Jr. returning, Falcons GM Ian Cunningham begins to sift his 2027 QB options

Michael Penix Jr. is officially back, with the Falcons naming him the starter for Thursday’s game against the Green Bay Packers. Unless he walks through that door soon with a pair of bionic knees and a cape, it feels like Atlanta is almost certainly headed for a quarterback reset this offseason.

That underscores the size of the swing and miss that occurred when the franchise drafted Penix Jr. No. 8 overall in the 2024 draft after signing Kirk Cousins to a deal that would pay out $100 million for 22 starts. It seems we’ll be adding Tua Tagovailoa to that pile after this season, too. Now the schedule is looking daunting and the potential to end up with the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft seems plausible if not likely.

So what happens in Atlanta?

Well, the bad news is that the Falcons may not be favored to win a game the rest of the season. The good news is that this is a great year to be terrible and need a franchise quarterback, with an expected bumper crop in the 2027 draft.

But the best news?

Atlanta’s general manager, Ian Cunningham, was part of two previous personnel departments that navigated their quarterback needs successfully. First with the Philadelphia Eagles, when the franchise unexpectedly took Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 draft, and then with the Chicago Bears when they selected Caleb Williams No. 1 overall in 2024. Dating all the way back to his start with the Baltimore Ravens in 2008, Cunningham has seen a lot of success in personnel departments. He’s also got the experience of a front-row seat for navigating a top pick in an ocean of options, as well as transitioning out of the quarterback abyss.

Given the quarterback decisions that unfolded when Cunningham was with the Eagles and Bears, I think Penix gets an authentic audition to meaningfully lock up the starting job. But Cunningham will also be simultaneously working on how to replace him if that doesn’t happen. One part of Cunningham’s past that I’d pay particularly close attention to: The Bears passing on taking a quarterback with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft and then pivoting away from Justin Fields and selecting Williams the following year.

That experience with the Bears could make Cunningham a bit of a wild card if Penix Jr. has a solid season and Atlanta still ends up with a top pick in the draft. He was alongside Bears general manager Ryan Poles when Chicago decided to trade out of the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft — choosing instead to stack more draft capital and build out the roster around Fields. Then Cunningham played a significant role in the evaluation process of Williams one year later, setting up a transition at the quarterback spot that changed Chicago’s future.

Looking back, it wasn’t particularly bold to choose to assess Fields for another season in 2023. And swapping Fields out for Williams in 2024 was a bit of a no-brainer. But seeing the results — how Chicago’s roster was strengthened in the process — gives Cunningham first-hand experience at keeping options on the table. It’s entirely possible that Penix Jr. plays well enough to become the Falcons’ version of Justin Fields and land another look in 2027. And it’s possible that Cunningham lands the No. 1 pick and trades out of it, choosing to rebuild across the roster with additional assets.

There’s no guarantee this ends up being a linear build for the Falcons — even with so many attractive quarterback options expected to be in the draft.

Share

Other odds and ends…

• I’ve touched on the Marvin Harrison Jr. situation once already since training camp, but it already feels appropriate to revisit it. Through two games, Harrison Jr. has contributed almost nothing to the offense: one catch for 33 yards, with only four targets on 62 routes. He also has a drop. That’s a staggering start for a player who was considered a once-in-a-generation wideout prospect in the 2024 draft. Given this start — and the reality that Harrison Jr. seems to have been regressing since his rookie season — it’s fair to wonder if he’s going to be in Arizona beyond this season.

  If the Cardinals reach the trade deadline and he’s not a bigger factor in the offense, it might be Arizona’s last chance to get anything out of him on the trade market. Part of the complication is the May deadline for exercising the fifth-year option in Harrison Jr.’s rookie contract. That option is currently projected at $18.968 million for the 2028 season. Given his production thus far, I don’t see the Cardinals exercising that option without some kind of dramatic rebound through the rest of this season. But I also don’t think another team would pick up that option under the current circumstances, either. That means if you’re a team interested in acquiring Harrison Jr., you’re doing it knowing it’s on a “show me” basis through the 2027 season. And as we’ve seen in past trades, players under a “show me” rental status don’t draw much on the market. The one deal I’d look at? The George Pickens trade package. The Pittsburgh Steelers sent Pickens and a sixth-round pick to the Dallas Cowboys for a third-round and fifth-round pick in return.

  Subscribe now

• Todd Monken may be what the Cleveland Browns need. After the brutal 34-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, there was an assembly line of reasons to believe the Browns were on their way to lying down against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Instead, the opposite happened. Cleveland’s defense played significantly better. The offense was more vertical. Quarterback Deshaun Watson looked like he was playing with some confidence. And after a 23-19 win that included enduring more than two hours of a rain delay, Monken was about as authentic as any coach can be. First in a fiery podium appearance where he slapped back at former Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin for making a “the Browns is the Browns” comment, then in an emotional speech to the locker room about winning.

  I don’t know if this is going to work out with Monken and the Browns or not. But at some points in time, someone has to stand up for the team — and by extension, the city of Cleveland. I spent some time with Monken in training camp, and there are two coaches he reminds me of when it comes to his personality traits: the Detroit Lions’ Dan Campbell and former NFL coach Bruce Arians. Both are emotional, blunt and authentic guys. Both connect with their locker rooms in very deep ways. And both aren’t afraid to fight back when they feel like it’s necessary. One thing in particular strikes me. Part of the Lions’ turnaround was facilitated by Campbell being thankful for the coaching opportunity and buying into the city of Detroit. I sense some of that with Monken. And I think that’s great for Cleveland.

  Share

• I didn’t think it was that big of a deal when Aaron Rodgers said he needs to do a better job of letting the coaches know what plays are working. Veteran quarterbacks have a dialogue with offensive coaches about plays. It happens. Rodgers saying it out loud only seems notable because of his past tug-of-war with McCarthy and a 20-3 loss to the New England Patriots that was embarrassing. But this wasn’t anything close to the level of previous issues. And given what the offense has looked like through two weeks, Rodgers is right to say something.

• A few quick thoughts to close out. … We’ll see how Malik Willis rounds into form, but I don’t think the Dolphins can pass on an elite QB if they end up with the No. 1 pick in the draft. The surrounding pieces aren’t great, but he looks like a bridge quarterback. … When I went through the Carolina Panthers’ training camp, the coaching staff and front office said that Bryce Young’s “level up” season was loading. So far, they look right. … It’s only two games, but Las Vegas Raiders GM John Spytek made a lot of moves that are showing up on the field through two games. The Raiders may be real, folks. … Before hitting the panic button on the Houston Texans, remember they started last season 0-3, having scored only 38 points in those three losses. They rounded into form and finished as a strong 12-5 playoff team. … Two other franchises started 0-2 and made the playoffs — the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers. I’m willing to bet multiple teams that are sitting at 0-2 right now will straighten it out and make it to the postseason.

That’s it for this week’s recalibration. As always, plenty more to come.

18 games into a career, it was an unfathomable quarterback disaster.

The offense was a disjointed mess. Sacks were coming in bunches. The playbook was trimmed down. Simple completions were being missed and complex throws were ending in interceptions. Barely into a second season, a hopeful franchise quarterback — taken with the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft — had the look of a franchise-wrecking mistake.

This was Bryce Young in 2024. And he was precisely where Cam Ward is right now: At the bottom of the league’s quarterback pile, with nowhere left to go but up.

That’s worth remembering this week, with Ward reaching an 18-game mark that has produced a strikingly similar comparison to the start of Young’s career. How the numbers stacked up for each in the first 18 games:

There are two meaningful distinctions tied to those numbers. First, Ward’s touchdown-to-interception ratio has been solidly better than Young’s over the beginning of their careers. And second, while Ward has frustratingly not appeared to have taken a step forward through the first game of the season, Young clearly was trending downward — to the point of getting benched after his 18th game. Yes, the results have been bad for Ward. And no, it doesn’t look like it’s going to change quickly. But everything isn’t lost.

Subscribe now

That’s not meant to sugarcoat the season-opening 23-10 loss to the New York Jets. Despite a revamped coaching staff, talent additions and an offseason of work, the Titans produced 195 yards of offense and one touchdown that came late in a game that was already over. A performance that not only gave credence to preseason concerns about Ward, but also extinguished any remaining fan optimism that head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll were going to turn the Titans and Ward around in one season.

It’s bleak. But again, the Panthers had even less to hold onto through Young’s first 18 games.

Not only was Young benched by head coach Dave Canales in favor of Andy Dalton, but there were also some conflicting opinions inside the franchise about his future. Some believed that Young needed to be traded in favor of another reset. Others thought he simply required a mental reset before being reinserted as the starter. But the underlying message was clear: Something had gone sideways with Young to the point that he couldn’t keep the starting job after only 18 games.

That’s not a crossroads the Titans have arrived at yet with Ward. Keeping him from getting there is now the most important job in the building.

Consider what happened with Young in 2024 when he returned to the starting lineup in Week 8. Over his final 10 starts, he threw 15 touchdowns against six interceptions. In 2025, he continued to slowly trend upward and the Panthers won the NFC South. And in Week 1 of this season, Young and the Panthers offense were the lone bright spot in a 59-37 loss to the Chicago Bears — with Young throwing for 361 yards and three touchdowns, against one interception and only two sacks.

Share

The quarterback who began his career looking like a mistake — and lost his starting job only two games into his second season — has become a player the Panthers are now building around with confidence. Of course, it came with help. The Panthers signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, improved pass protection and built a running game around Chuba Hubbard. And after the benching, Canales and Young worked through the schematic failures together.

The Titans can build toward the same outcome. That’s what I think Saleh is talking about when he preaches consistency and continuity around Ward.

As Saleh said of Ward earlier this week: “We’re trying to build a foundation for him, and we’re trying to give him some stability.”

I believe that. Even in the face of a bad first result.

When I went through Titans camp and spent time with people in the building, they weren’t selling an instant turnaround when it came to Ward. Instead, they talked about getting him to trust and identify small gains. They talked about consistent instruction with Ward’s footwork and getting to the point that the routine throw becomes routine. And more than anything, they talked about patience.

That’s not going to be easy — especially when the Titans are absorbing frustrating losses. And there’s also the reality that Ward can’t escape scrutiny against the 2025 quarterback class, which has seen Jaxson Dart quickly pay off for the New York Giants, while Tyler Shough has made steady gains with the New Orleans Saints. Ward’s performances are going to be consistently measured against both of those players, much in the same manner Young has been measured against the performance of C.J. Stroud from the 2023 class.

Subscribe now

Once a blowout in Stroud’s favor, the distance between those two quarterbacks has gotten considerably tighter in their fourth seasons. A year or two from now, we could be saying the same thing about Ward, Dart and Shough.

To get there, the Titans and Daboll are going to have to find a collection of plays that Ward can execute decisively and then expand moving forward. Play-action opportunities. Moving the pocket to either help the protection or provide a clearer read for Ward. Whatever the combination, Tennessee has to find the tweaks that let Ward find a rhythm before he’s eventually expected to carry a Sunday.

Of course, Ward has to meet all of that with better execution. He owns the missed throws. He has to learn which plays are worth extending and which ones need to end with the ball in the seats. The coaches can create opportunities for progress. They can’t complete the passes. But this staff and Ward have one regular-season game in the books. There’s still room for this partnership to grow, and plenty of season left to establish whether the lessons are sticking.

Young’s turnaround in Carolina gives Tennessee a reason to believe that work and roster-tuning can pay off. Now the Titans have to make the conditions for Ward’s improvement more than an offseason promise.

Eighteen games is too early to give up on that. But it’s also long enough for Tennessee to understand that getting Ward right is going to require more than waiting.

Looking back at the Week 1 NFL games in our first recalibration of the season…

The Chicago Bears offense is frightening

Not just because they scored 59 points against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Not only because quarterback Caleb Williams was making all the right decisions in head coach Ben Johnson’s scheme. And not because an explosive running game balanced the Bears in a way that made them unstoppable.

Chicago did all of this without getting a single touchdown from tight end Colston Loveland and wideouts Luther Burden and Rome Odunze.

When I passed through Bears camp in August, that young trio had everyone in the franchise buzzing. Significant growth was anticipated. Cornerstones were settling in. Even with Williams’ offseason strides — which saw him take ownership of Johnson’s offense — you couldn’t debate Chicago’s goal of being the highest-scoring team in NFL history without talking about Loveland, Burden and Odunze.

And then the Bears went out and rolled up 59 points in Week 1, with that trio putting up a combined stat line of seven catches for 115 yards and zero scores. A modest haul that was accentuated by Loveland failing to catch a single pass on two targets.

If this is what the Bears offense looks like when its young pass-catching stars don’t need to have big days, I can’t imagine what this offense is going to look like when that trio shoulders the load that it is capable of.

Subscribe now

It’s remarkable how quickly Johnson and general manager Ryan Poles have replicated Johnson’s peak Detroit Lions experience, creating a roster of skill position players that can spread the wealth in different places from one game to the next. From developing running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai into Johnson’s next David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs duo, to signing returner/wideout Kalif Raymond and using him to weaponize the rungs of the depth chart under the Loveland/Burden/Odunze trio.

In the preseason, there was hand-wringing about whether the defense was going to be good enough to prevent a regression from 2025. If this is what the offense looks like — and it’s still Week 1, so let’s be measured — then I don’t think the defense has to be anything but average for the Bears to roll the NFC. That defense was woeful against the Panthers and it still didn’t matter.

That’s the message a 59-37 dismantling sends. 552 yards. 291 rushing yards. Six rushing touchdowns. Against a Panthers team that is not devoid of talent on defense. Chicago’s offense looks good enough to allow the defense to figure it out over the course of the season.

As Williams told reporters, this is the standard: “That’s how we want to look each week. That’s who we want to be each week.”

The rest of the NFC had better hope this performance was the biggest Week 1 liar.

This better not be an accurate representation of the Dallas Cowboys defense

I got sucked in. I’ll admit it. When I saw the Cowboys defense in camp, it looked more talented across the board and new defensive coordinator Christian Parker seemed to have resolved the communication problems that plagued the unit last season. I gushed.

Now I’m a little nervous after the Cowboys’ 28-20 loss to the New York Giants.

Not only did the Cowboys clearly have some communication issues on the back end of the defense, but also the line looked stunningly overmatched by the New York Giants offense at the point of attack. There’s too much money and talent invested in that defensive front for it to get physically pushed around. And that was hardly the only problem.

Share

The bigger worry may be the adjustments. Dallas clearly couldn’t figure out what to do with Giants tight end Isaiah Likely in key situations, as he came up with one big catch after another. That contributed to several moments where NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth basically embarrassed the Cowboys defense by simply doing his job. Not only showing how the Giants were utilizing an oddly and repeatedly wide-open left flat for completions to running back Devin Singletary, but also unleashing on the Cowboys after Likely was left uncovered in the back of the end zone for a touchdown.

“I thought I saw some bad defense out of the Cowboys last year,” Collinsworth said late in the first half. “That sequence was as bad as it gets. They’re going to leave this corner completely wide open against Isaiah Likely, who has been destroying them the entire half. I don’t know who’s blowing these coverages out here in the defensive left flat, but they had two guys chasing the wide receiver who was three yards down the field and nobody on the corner route.”

The unit was atrocious on third down (giving up 9 of 11 conversions), there appeared to be confusion in coverages (sound familiar?), there were multiple missed tackles, and the four-man pass rush provided little pressure on Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart, who also rushed for 54 yards.

All of this after Parker’s system change promised clearer checks and communication and an ability to fix mistakes quickly in-game. I still think there’s a solid chance this is a Week 1 issue and that the talent on this defense can work out the kinks. But if this is something that becomes a trend, I can tell you right now what the story is going to become very quickly in Dallas: Parker has never called a defense before, and this is what it looks like when he does.

That’s something that could get very ugly, very fast.

Deshaun Watson is very likely playing for his starting job this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We could very easily be talking today about the Browns defense, which was much worse in the 34-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars than I anticipated. But first things first. This situation with Watson feels like it could be on track for the Week 3 quarterback change that some predicted when Watson was named the starter.

Already, there has been a slight shift in the stance of head coach Todd Monken: when he could have come out and named Watson the Week 2 starter after Sunday’s ugly 34-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, he didn’t. When he had another opportunity to do it on Monday, Monken said he “anticipated” Watson being the starter against Tampa.

While I think it’s clear that Watson is the starter, that language still feels like some slippage. Not that Monken isn’t doing his best to deflect blame from Watson.

“It confirmed it when I looked at the tape — we’ve got to play better around him [and] we’ve got to call it better,” Monken said. “And he’s got to play better. … Our inability to function consistently as an offense was a byproduct of ‘we,’ coaching and playing.”

Subscribe now

In the respect that this wasn’t all a Watson loss, I think Monken has a fair point. On one hand, Watson threw away a promising opening drive with a bad interception. Who knows what it would have meant for Cleveland’s momentum if it had been able to mount a touchdown drive. But on the other, the Browns’ defense failed to get some stops that could have altered momentum, too. The 3rd-and-7 that became a 30-yard Parker Washington touchdown was one. A pair of chunk plays to Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. on the Jaguars’ next offensive series.

In a snap, the Browns had given up 110 passing yards on back-to-back drives and were trailing 14-0. Then rookie wideout KC Concepcion fumbles and gives Jacksonville a short field when Cleveland is trailing 17-0. That short-field drive gets converted into a 24-0 lead for the Jaguars and then it’s an onslaught. The Jaguars pass rush is cranking up the pressure knowing the Browns are in passing situations. And just like that, it’s over.

So it wasn’t all Watson. But there was one moment late in the first quarter that I think is worth exploring with Watson. On 3rd and 10 late in the first quarter — clearly a passing down — Watson lined up in the shotgun. Upon taking the snap, he backpedaled another seven steps, to a depth that was roughly 13 yards behind the line of scrimmage when he set up. I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen a quarterback take a seven-step drop out of the shotgun. Initially, I thought it could have been a sly screen attempt that was thwarted (and it may have been), given that a Jaguars defender showed rush but then peeled off to follow the running back bleeding out of the backfield into the right flat.

Whatever it was — and I still think it could have been a screen — the play was blown apart. Watson was sacked and fumbled. His depth appeared to contribute to it, but it also was not blocked particularly well. It’s not clear whether more of the issue was on the line or Watson. I texted the play to a pair of pro scouts and asked them to take a look. My exact question: “You ever seen anything like this?”

Whoever was at fault on the play, the reality is the first game showcased that a lot of problems still exist in Cleveland and Watson is at least one of them. I think he has a chance to put up a bounce-back game against the Buccaneers and head into Cleveland’s home-opener against the Carolina Panthers as the starter. But if Watson and the Browns lose to Tampa Bay in a fashion similar to the Jaguars defeat, I think Week 3 could be extremely ugly with the home crowd. Maybe that’s something the Browns and Monken are willing to endure, but I think it’s going to be a distraction that sends the needle into the red for the franchise.

I wrote before about the multitude of decisions it takes for a quarterback to function in Monken’s offense at the line of scrimmage. Maybe Shedeur Sanders can’t handle all of the checks and calls and decisions. But if this is what Cleveland’s offense looks like with Watson, does it really matter? Especially when you have a fan base that is souring quickly on what they’re seeing.

Other odds and ends…

• Trevor Lawrence has been the hottest quarterback in the NFL since Week 12 of last season. It’s Week 1, so I’m not going to go overboard, but his growth and confidence with head coach Liam Coen have been transformative. We’ve waited a long time for that Lawrence. He might be here to stay.

  Share

• Again, it’s just Week 1, but it was intriguing to see three teams that have gone through the wood chipper for a long time — the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets — get their seasons off on a winning note. I went through all three camps in the preseason, and the one that really stood out was the complete atmospheric change inside the Raiders. The tense issues on the coaching staff in 2025 between Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly and others definitely had people in the franchise walking on eggshells. The arrival of Klint Kubiak, Kirk Cousins, Tyler Linderbaum and some other veterans made a huge difference in the attitude and approach in the preseason. Maybe no player will end up benefiting more than running back Ashton Jeanty, who is operating behind an offensive line that looked like a totally changed unit in Week 1.

  When tight end Brock Bowers returns, which should be soon, it will be interesting to see where this offense can go with Kubiak. It might be an overreaction off of one week, but I’ve been through the Raiders for years in camp and this time it did feel different.

• Speaking of the Raiders, I did some quick poking around on Kirk Cousins — just in case the Minnesota Vikings quarterback situation completely falls apart — and got the sense that there’s no chance Cousins would be in play for the Vikings at the trade deadline. Regardless of circumstance, I don’t think Vikings ownership would be on board with it. Nor do I think the Raiders are going to be inclined to take Cousins away from Fernando Mendoza, especially if the Raiders are a competitive team heading into the trade deadline.

• I think I’m going to get to this one later in the season, but if something doesn’t change soon, the Cam Ward-Jaxson Dart-Tyler Shough draft dynamic is going to weigh on the Tennessee Titans fan base. Surely it already does. But if Dart and Shough continue on their current trajectories, this is going to be a rough 2025 draft rehash for years to come.

  Subscribe now

• Get ready to start talking about the head coaching interviews for new Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. Baltimore’s offense looked exquisite in Week 1. Hamstring issues aside, Zay Flowers looks like he leveled up in the offseason and is capable of being a top-end WR1. And running back Derrick Henry…I’m not saying he could be a threat to the NFL’s all-time rushing title, but I did look to see how old Frank Gore was when he last played in the NFL.

  Gore played until he was 37. Henry is 32 and an absolute freak as an athlete. If his Week 1 performance (24 carries for 144 yards and three touchdowns) is a real projection of his staying power as a top-tier running back, it’s hard to rule out the possibility that he can crank out some big seasons for a few more years.

• The Houston Texans defense is going to be fine. … Buffalo’s wide receivers already look better with the offseason retooling. … Myles Garrett’s knee issue and the Australia travel have low-key provided some cover for how off the Los Angeles Rams’ offense was in the opener. … Shout out to Carolina Panthers wideout Jalen Coker, who I have loved since he came out of Holy Cross. And I have the receipts to prove it. See the undrafted priority free agent that was on the roster of the 2024 All-Juice Team.

  

That’s it for this week’s recalibration. As always, plenty more to come.