Continuing from Friday’s trade notebook — with less than 24 hours from the deadline, here are the five situations I’m watching most closely …
Indianapolis Colts interim GM Ed Dodds + owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon and the power they’re wielding
A year ago, the Colts sent two first-round picks to the New York Jets in a package for Sauce Gardner. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, it means its 2027 first-rounder, which is currently tracking to be inside the top five picks, belongs to the Jets. This is an important data point right now, because it explains why Indianapolis is standing so stiffly on the trade value of running back Jonathan Taylor. Deal Taylor away and Indianapolis is a much weaker offensive team this season, which only serves to improve the draft positioning of someone not named the Colts in 2027.
That reality thrusts Indianapolis into the interesting position of shaping part of the league’s Super Bowl path from this point forward. A path that has already been tweaked twice by the Colts in the last few weeks, after Indianapolis traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers and offensive guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks. Two deals that signaled the start of an NFC arms race heading into the deadline, led by contenders from both the NFC West and NFC North.
Between Josh Downs and Taylor, the Colts are still the NFL team with the assets to change the path of a playoff race. Downs could be that important to the Kansas City Chiefs. And Taylor could be that important to a number of contenders. Based on calls that I made into Monday afternoon, Downs continues to be what I am assessing as the Chiefs’ No. 1 target into the deadline. I believe Taylor is the top target for multiple franchises. But for all, the issue continues to be cost. The Colts are looking for first-round pick value in a trade for Taylor, which could constitute any number of different packages that find traction into Tuesday afternoon. Some have offered an aggregate haul of picks that deliver first-round value, while others have discussed a package of picks and a veteran player that would yield a similar return on value.
What’s clear is that Irsay-Gordon doesn’t want to part company with Taylor without recognizing close to full value for a centerpiece running back who appears to have at least two or three seasons of solid production ahead. Downs isn’t cemented in place quite as steadfastly, but the Colts are still seeking third-round value out of him, which is rich for an expiring wideout contract.
Chiefs GM Brett Veach seizing a window with Josh Downs
I believe Downs has been on the Chiefs’ radar since Week 2 of the regular season, when he caught seven passes for 72 yards and gave the Kansas City defense plenty to think about in an eventual 33-30 Chiefs win. It makes sense, given that Kansas City’s most efficient offensive scheme has gone through running back Kenneth Walker Jr. and tight end Travis Kelce. The Chiefs could use some diversification, even with Rashee Rice returning to the lineup. Downs would provide that. He’s not a burner, but he knows how to run routes that Mahomes could count on. That’s a huge start for Kansas City.
As late as Monday afternoon, three league sources dialed into the trade market believed the Chiefs were the leader for Downs. The sticking point across the board, from what I was told, is that Indianapolis is looking to clear third-round value for Downs. That’s rich for an expiring deal. I still think something gets done.
Jerry Jones trying to make chicken salad out of a bad defensive unit
There are things about the defense that continue to bother me. It looks like a unit that — even if it secures a playoff bid — is likely to have some kind of catastrophic meltdown that causes a postseason loss. Honestly, I blew it on defensive coordinator Christian Parker and this unit. I thought it had the potential to be one of the NFL’s top 10 defenses, and I was horrifically wrong. I can split that poor assessment into a number of different boxes, but the biggest thing that bothers me about Parker’s defense is that it simply can’t get the stop that it needs most. When the Cowboys needed a key stop against Cardinals backup QB Gardner Minshew down the stretch last Sunday, they weren’t able to secure it.
Eventually, Arizona escaped with a 33-30 overtime win, effectively crippling the Cowboys’ chances at earning a postseason berth.
In the vantage of a trade deadline, it screamed a few realities. One? Wideout George Pickens appears to be playing his way out of Dallas, so the “now” seems to be extremely important. There’s no telling what the Dallas Super Bowl window will look like with Pickens off the roster. So the time to get something done for Jerry is right now.
In that vein, I think the Cowboys still have an available trade option in Arizona Cardinals edge Josh Sweat. A league source pegged the Cardinals’ asking price in the second-round range, but I think Dallas could get a deal done in the third-round tier. The more important question is whether Jones and the rest of the Cowboys leadership see 2027 as part of a diminishing Super Bowl window. If that’s the case, this is the time for the front office to make a meaningful move.
Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker is still a prize for the Buffalo Bills and GM Brandon Beane
Roughly a year ago, when the trade deadline was approaching in 2025, Beane told reporters and his fan base that the Bills could “win a championship with this roster.” He was wrong. It cost head coach Sean McDermott his job, somehow landed Beane a promotion and lined up some memorable press conference moments where it was clear Beane was strongly backed by team owner Terry Pegula. Ultimately, it didn’t alter the Bills’ destiny when it came to the postseason.
One season later? The Bills are once again being carried by quarterback Josh Allen and looking like one of the league’s Super Bowl favorites. But it’s all about the fine-tuning down the stretch, and the fact remains that the Bills defense could still use some reinforcements — even when the franchise is off to a fast start. Look no further than the Jacksonville Jaguars for the evidence of that. Despite a 6-2 start that features a whopping 108+ point differential through eight games, the Jaguars went out and snagged Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III on the market Monday. The cost? A 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round choice. It’s not a small price for an All-Pro safety who turns 30 in February. But it’s also not a significant surrender of assets if the Falcons land a Super Bowl win in Los Angeles in a few months, which the Jaguars also believe is possible.
I don’t know if Bates can finally be the piece that puts it all together for the Jaguars on defense. But when it comes to the Bills, but I respect if they decide to take a shot with Baker.
New York Giants head coach John Harbaugh and GM Joe Schoen + any trade at this point
If there is anything that we’ve learned in this trade rotation, it’s this: Harbaugh is deeply involved in the personnel department’s movements, and he’s not afraid to let you know what the Giants have been working on — regardless of whether a trade was successful or not. That’s all I can take away from Harbaugh confirming that the Giants tried to get in on both Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor but were unable to get a deal done on either. It’s unusual for a team to be so open with a deal that they can’t get done. And it’s most definitely not going unnoticed outside of the organization. The underlying message of working with the Giants into this deadline? Just know that whatever you’re negotiating, it’s probably going to reach the public at some point, as Harbaugh seems happy to address any personnel moves that he’s asked about.
Put yourself in Schoen’s shoes for a moment. Who is the focal point of the personnel operation? Because it doesn’t seem as if it’s your show as a GM if your head coach is making calls to other NFL owners about deals or commenting publicly about the deals that didn’t even get done. Which is precisely what Harbaugh has done with a Simmons deal that never got on track and a Taylor deal that appears to have gone sideways in terms of compensation. I’m not sure what the alignment is inside the Giants anymore. But clearly, Harbaugh wants to do some kind of deal.
Somewhere today, a GM is going to hang up the phone because he’s willing to give up a third-round pick and the other team wants a second-rounder. Come April, when he’s on the draft clock, he might be glad he held firm this November. Of course, the Sundays in January and February are what matter most.
The tail is wagging the dog in New York